I know, I know. My predictions don't look that much different from how the standings meted out in 2007-8. That's for good reason, too.

For the last 10 years or so, some team comes from out of nowhere to surprise us all. Like the Giants last year. The Rams in 2000. The Falcons in 1998. New Orleans in 2006. You get the idea.

I suppose that's why I am a little conservative with my picks. I mean, heck, given the great parity in the NFL my Raiders could make the wild card this year. Yup, just as soon as monkeys fly outta my butt.

The point is making NFL predictions is a tricky affair. Things just never remain the same from season to season, and that's a good thing. Except for the Patriots, and even they have issues this year.

So let's get to my I'm-no-professional picks.

NFC EAST
Dallas--Addition of Adam "Pacman" Jones helps on D and ST. Hint to Tony Romo: Get ball to TE Whitten in red zone more.
New York--They beat New England in SB XLI. So why am I still not a believer?
Washington--Coach Jim Zorn's west coast offense should rack up points no matter who's a QB. A real surprise in the making.
Philadelphia--Donovan McNabb needs somebody else to rely on other than RB Brian Westbrook.

NFC NORTH
Green Bay--Understudy QB Aaron Rodgers gets to test what he learned from The Master.
Minnesota--RB Adrian Peterson will see more 8-man fronts than he can possibly fathom.
Detroit--Christ at QB. Or at least John Kitna thinks he is.
Chicago--Christ, find a QB.

NFC SOUTH
New Orleans--If new TE Jeremy Shockey can stay healthy, that opens up an already explosive offense even more.
Tampa Bay--Note to Jon Gruden: Jeff Garcia is no Rich Gannon.
Carolina--This could be Coach Fox's last season.
Atlanta--Screw sitting #1 pick QB Matt Ryan. Nothing teaches better than experience.

NFC WEST
Arizona--Sooner or later, they'll take this division. I say sooner. Though I have a lot of reasons to say the opposite.
Seattle--Quick, name an able-bodied wide receiver on this team. See what I mean? Ouch.
St. Louis--They've still got an O, but can the O-line stay healthy? It better, the defense is awful.
San Francisco--It's official. QB Alex Smith is a bust.

Wild Cards: Washington, New York
NFC Champion: Dallas

AFC EAST
New England--They're going to need all those points this year to make up for a sub-par secondary. They'll run more, too.
Buffalo--A lot better than people think. Well, sort of. QBs Trent Edwards and JP Losman don't exactly make you think of Joe Montana and Steve Young.
NY Jets--An embarrassing way to end a Hall of Fame career for Brett Favre.
Miami--Bill Parcells needs a couple of years to finish his grocery shopping. In the meantime, the cart is running on wobbly wheels.

AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh--Punishing RB tandem in Willie Parker and rookie Rashard Mendenhall takes a lot of pressure off Big Ben. A Super Bowl berth is not out of the question.
Cleveland--QB Derek Anderson and WR Braylon Edwards click. This team is primed for a deep run.
Cincinnati--Dog bites man analysis: Coach Lewis has lost control of this team.
Baltimore--The AFC version of the Bears. And neither of these two have figured out that defense doesn't win championships.

AFC SOUTH
Jacksonville--Why first place? Two reasons: Defense and they give the Colts fits.
Indianapolis--Playoffs? Playoffs? Oh yeah, they'll make the playoffs. Too much O.
Tennessee--Such a gritty, tough team that simply plays in a division with 2 better teams.
Houston--Could easily go a respectable 8-8 again, if not better.

AFC WEST
San Diego--Lots of D. Lots of LT, too. It's this year or never for the Bolts.
Oakland--RB Darren McFadden gives my guys hope for the first time in 5 years. Dare I dream of an 8-8 season?
Denver--You know the wheels are spinning off when there are questions about the running game.
Kansas City--With an O-line gutted by retirements, RB Larry Johnson will find yards harder to come by.

Wild Cards: Indianapolis, Cleveland
AFC Champion: San Diego

Super Bowl: Dallas over San Diego