Sunday 4:30 PM ET Tennessee @ San Diego

San Diego's season was a roller coaster - first down, then up again, then kinda down again, then way up. It ended with them in the playoffs, and now Norv Turner has a shot at exorcising some of his ghosts by leading a good team deep into the post-season. Tennessee started as a fashionable pick, and managed to live up to most of that hype. Unfortunately, injuries have piled up on them - they're without RB LenDale White and RG Benji Olson, while QB Vince Young remains a game-time decision.

Crunching the Numbers:

The Chargers' rankings are nothing special when you look at yardage - 20th on offense, 15th on defense - but they were 5th in the NFL in both scoring offense and defense. What does this tell us? That when the Chargers won, they tended to win big (the average score during their 6-game season-ending win streak was 31-13). Their run offense was 7th overall and 2nd in TDs, thanks mostly to L.T. of course. Their turnover differential was +9.

Tennessee was fairly dominating defensively - 4th in yardage, 8th in scoring. Their offense? Good on the run side - 5th overall, with QB Vince Young chipping in almost 400 yards himself - but on the pass side, a dismal 27th, and dead-last in passing TDs. Their defense is solid against the run which may help them slow down L.T. some. And they pick off a lot of passes (2nd most in the league). Their overall turnover differential was -4.

The Skinny:

LaDanian Tomlinson rebounded from a sub-par season to lead the league in rushing, and is playing his best ball going into the playoffs. L.T. can win a game almost by himself - which is good news for San Diego, because Philip Rivers has been less-than-inspiring for much of the season. Tennessee should have enough defense to keep the Chargers from totally blowing them out - but the question is whether their offense will be able to produce at all. Some have suggested the Titans might be better off with Kerry Collins starting instead of Vince Young.

The Prediction:

The Chargers were only one game better than Tennessee record-wise this year, but despite this, today's game looks like a giant mismatch. It will take some lucky bounces and big turnovers for Tennessee to win. I take San Diego 28-17.