Sunday 1 PM ET New York Giants @ Tampa Bay
The Giants may have finished the year with a loss, but it was a hard-fought loss against the 16-0 New England Patriots, so in a strange way you almost feel like the Giants have momentum (I thought the Redskins had momentum too, but look what that got them). The Buccaneers, conversely, finished the season rather feebly, losing 3-of-4.
Crunching the Numbers:
The Bucs are always about defense and this year was no exception: they were third overall in both scoring D and yards-allowed, 2nd against the pass and 17th against the run. Their run offense, which began the season as a liability due to injuries, turned into the NFL's 11th-ranked unit by season's end, thanks largely to the efforts of Earnest Graham. Their pass unit, led by Jeff Garcia with a big assist from Luke McCown, was only 16th-best, but tied Jacksonville for fewest interceptions allowed with 8. Tampa's turnover differential was +4.
The Giants stand out only in rushing offense, where they finished 4th overall. Their defense was 9th in yards-allowed but only 17th in scoring - a deceiving stat, perhaps, as the team was hurt all year by turnovers and the resulting easy scoring chances for opponents. Their pass offense, "led" by Eli Manning, was 22nd overall (and now they're missing Jeremy Shockey). The alarming number? A -10 turnover differential.
The Skinny:
The formula isn't complicated for the Giants: Run effectively and limit Eli Manning's attempts, and you have a chance to win. This is doubly-important against Tampa Bay which has a terrific pass defense. The Bucs also like to keep Jeff Garcia's attempts down, but Garcia, unlike Manning, has a history of making big plays in big games.
The Prediction:
To me, this pick boils down to one thing: Which QB do I have more confidence in to make a play when it needs to be made? The answer to that is Jeff Garcia, by a lot. I take Tampa 24-20.
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Tags: earnest graham, eli manning, jeff garcia, new york giants, tampa bay buccaneers
