Saturday 8 PM ET Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh
If Jacksonville were an old blues tune they'd be "Steady Rolling Man." And if Pittsburgh were a classic song? "Bad Moon Rising." As in, "I feel a..." "I" being a Steelers fan.
Crunching the Numbers:
We think of the Jags as a defensive-sided team, but in fact, they were a better offense statistically than they were a defense: 6th in scoring O and 10th in scoring D; 6th in offense yardage-wise and 12th in defense. Most of their offensive success, of course, came on the ground, where they were the 2nd-ranked unit in the league. Passing-wise, their calling-card is lack of turnovers - their QBs threw only 8 INTs all year, fewest in the league.
If you want to talk about truly dominating defense, you have to talk about Pittsburgh. They were 2nd in scoring defense and 1st in yards-allowed. Their pass and run defenses are equally formidable, placing 3rd overall in both areas. If there's anything to quibble with it's that they produced only 11 turnovers all year. Offensively, they're a running squad that likes to pass when they get in the red-zone. They were 3rd in overall rush offense but only 22nd in rushing TDs. They were, however, 3rd in the league in passing TDs.
The Skinny:
Willie Parker is on IR for Pittsburgh, meaning Najeh Davenport will have to carry the load. This all-but-forces them to pass the ball probably more than they want to, leaving the team's fate squarely in the hands of Ben Roethlisberger, who had a fantastic season with 34 TDs and 11 INTs...on only 404 attempts (far fewer than any of the other elite QBs in the league). Jacksonville, meanwhile, has their two-headed running attack intact - and their QB David Garrard sported a rating just a couple points lower than Roethlisberger's (in many fewer games, owing to Garrard's mid-season injury).
The Prediction:
These teams would seem almost mirror images of each other...if Pittsburgh actually had their top runner on the field. Jacksonville's defense is better at forcing turnovers and that may prove to be the difference. I take the Jags 21-14.
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Tags: ben roethlisberger, david garrard, jacksonville jaguars, pittsburgh steelers
