In spite of all of the drama, the simple fact is that if Missouri and West Virginia win their last game, they will play for the National Championship. End of story, no controversy, the BCS is in tact and all is well in college football.
Of course, given the 2007 NCAA football history, things have rarely happened so cleanly. Dan already discussed this but here is some more food for thought.
Missouri deserves their lofty position and are playing very good football right now. They have one opponent left. That's the one opponent who beat them earlier in the year. That loss was on the road at Oklahoma and the Big 12 Championship game will be played on a neutral site in San Antonio, Texas.
This should be a great game as the teams are so closely matched. The Sooners are putting up 43.8 points per game and the Tigers have 41.9. Both teams are in the bottom half of the Big 12 in terms of penalties.
This could be a big deal in a game with no home team.
Oklahoma's defense has a significant edge allowing just 18.3 points per game to Missouri's 23.4.
As is often the case; a game like this could come down to the special teams. This is where the Sooners have a huge advantage. Oklahoma has averaged 41.9 yards net on 46 punts while Missouri has averaged 22.5 yards net on 100 punts. This could greatly alter the field position
game and if it does, Oklahoma will win.
An Oklahoma win wouldn't necessarily blow up the BCS. Ohio State (winner of the Big 10) and West Virginia (winner of the Big East) would likely move up and two one-loss teams would play for the championship.
If Pitt were to somehow upset the Mountaineers (see Stanford - USC) however, the wheels come off the bus immediately.
West Virginia rolled up 517 rushing yards against UConn in their last game, but Pitt is only giving up 132 yards rushing per game. If Pitt can force the Mountaineers into a passing game they have a chance.
West Virginia is dead last in passing in the entire Big East. It is doubtful that Pitt can contain West Virginia's running game.
Keep in mind however, that the Mountaineers are ranked #2. This has not been a good thing all year! Being ranked #2 is like being Fredo Corleone in a rowboat on Lake Tahoe; nothing good is likely to happen.
This is where it gets fun. Next in the BCS rankings is UGA who has two losses and didn't even win the SEC East. Although with only one loss, Kansas has the same problem. Virginia Tech has a good argument as well. The Hokies have two losses but both were against Top-5 teams. LSU and USC have losses against unranked teams AT HOME.
Does this give Oklahoma glimmer of hope? Maybe. They too have two losses to unranked teams but knocking off a number one in a championship game could give a big enough boost.
The most interesting thing to me is that Ohio State is sitting in the best position right now and I believe that any other team in the Top-10 would beat the Buckeyes handily in a championship game.
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Comments (5)
For the most part, I agree ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Tom Blogical | November 27, 2007 8:42 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
For the most part, I agree with your post, except for this line:
"The most interesting thing to me is that Ohio State is sitting in the
best position right now and I believe that any other team in the
Top-10 would beat the Buckeyes handily in a championship game."
Could you please clarify if you mean to say any other team, excluding West Virginia, or any other team, including West Virgina?
Also, handily? Hasn't this season's long list of unranked teams pulling off upsets over the top-ranked teams taught you anything? Please tell me you're not using last year's team's performance in one game as an indicator of this year's potential performance, as a lot of others seem to be doing. I hope you're focusing on the performance of this year's team. :-)
In addition, the Buckeyes will get a top 10 team no matter what happens, so I guess we'll see if you're right or not. Your answer to my question concerning West Virginia above will either confuse or clarify your point for me.
Being an Ohio State fan, I'm hoping this opinion that OSU will get beaten handily is shared by everyone in the blogosphere and in the MSM. I also hope this opinion is shouted from the rooftops for the next month and a half. Please continue to discount this team's talent level as often as possible. :-)
1. Posted by Tom Blogical | November 27, 2007 8:42 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 27, 2007 20:42
2. Posted by Danny Strickland | November 27, 2007 9:03 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Thanks for the comment. Nothing gets more passion than a favorite college team. I think OSU is a good football team and Tressel has did a great job, particularly against Michigan but I really do believe that any team in the Top-10 (to include West Virginia) could beat the Buckeyes. If I turn out to be wrong, I'll take the heat but the Buckeyes cruised through the Big 10 in a humiliatingly bad year for Michigan State on the backs of Youngstown State, Akron, Northwestern and Kent State.
These teams helped pad OSU's defensive ranking and even with this less than competitive schedule are ranked 37th in offense. This is of course a debate that will settle itself shortly.
If the Buckeyes are your team, good luck; I think you are going to need it.
2. Posted by Danny Strickland | November 27, 2007 9:03 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on November 27, 2007 21:03
3. Posted by Tom Blogical | November 27, 2007 11:00 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
"...but I really do believe that any team in the Top-10 (to include West Virginia) could beat the Buckeyes."
Well, "could beat" is a far cry from "beat handily". Backpedaling much? ;-)
Including West Virginia? This is where you have confused me, instead of helping me, understand your position. Have you seen their schedule?
Western Michigan, Marshall, Maryland, East Carolina, South Florida, Syracuse, Miss St, Rutgers, Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, Pitt. Plus, they had a Bye in both week 7 and week 10. (OSU played all their games in 12 straight weeks.)
Lots of powerhouses there, right? IMO, wrong. A few average teams, such as South Florida, Rutgers, Cincy, and maybe UConn. The rest? Below average. Plus, OSU's loss to Illinois is a "better" loss than the one WVU suffered to South Florida. One could argue OSU should be ranked ahead of WVU. I won't, however.
In all fairness, if you think OSU's stats were padded, then so was West Virginia's, when you actually look at who they played.
Concerning OSU's offensive ranking. In every game other than Illinois and Michigan, the games were over well before the 4th quarter. Can you say subs for mop-up duty? Plus, I hope you've heard of Tressel Ball by now. He sits on leads and eats clock; and doesn't run up the score for style points or stats padding. The Michigan-OSU game was largely dictated to by the weather. Freezing sleet, mist, and light rain in different periods of the game put a lockdown on both offenses.
As far as the Illinois game--this was OSU's worst game of the year--coupled with Illinois' best. Boeckman threw 3 picks (all of the correctable variety--they weren't terrible choices--great plays by the Illini) and no team can win when a QB does that. (Had you mentioned the QB play I may have cut you some slack concerning OSU's chances!) Don't forget--Tressel's 2002 NC team didn't have a great offense and a slightly better than average QB also. (:-D)
Thanks for the offer of luck, but I'll decline. The Buckeyes won't need it. Boeckman played very well for 10 games--nothing a little rest and practice time won't cure. :-)
I'm glad you're posting, too--that makes 3 authors over here in Wizbang Sports--any more coming on board?
3. Posted by Tom Blogical | November 27, 2007 11:00 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 27, 2007 23:00
4. Posted by Kevin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangsports.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| November 28, 2007 1:11 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
One more starting this week.
4. Posted by Kevin![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangsports.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| November 28, 2007 1:11 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 28, 2007 01:11
5. Posted by Tom Blogical | November 28, 2007 10:22 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Kevin: Sweet!
5. Posted by Tom Blogical | November 28, 2007 10:22 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 28, 2007 10:22