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MLB Championship Series Preview/Predictions

Who says there isn't parity in baseball? OK, you got me. It's not quite as good as the NFL where a new king is crowned seemingly every season, but more and more once-underachieving MLB teams are showing that you can succeed in this league by building up from the inside. (That's a REAL big hint to Steinbrenner & Co.) How else can you explain the success of the Colorado Rockies and Cleveland Indians? Neither of these teams were built via free agency and a big old bankroll. The same can be said of the Diamondbacks. Maybe, just maybe, general managers are starting to get the whole "Moneyball" thing.

Enough of that, though. Let's go a predictin'!

ALCS: CLELVELAND INDIANS VS. BOSTON RED SOX
Prediction: Cleveland, 4-2
Comment:

In my original predictions back in February, I had the Indians making the ALCS, just not against the Red Sox. Why? Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, a resurgent Jhonny Peralta and really great bench, that's why. They ate up the Yankee pitching staff and spit them out like so much steak grizzle. And lost in the midge invasion of Game 2 of the ALDS and East Coast fascination with Andy Pettitte was Fausto Carmona's quiet gem (9 innings, 3 hits). With Carmona, CC Sabathia and now with Paul Byrd rising to the occasion, plus the Indians pen shutting down opponents and giving up only 3 runs the entire ALDS, they are primed to give the Red Sox everything they can handle. The major concern for the Indians and their fans remains their potentially implosive closer Joe Borowski.

For the Red Sox, lest we not forget them. First, a funny thing happened on the way to the playoffs. Somebody found Manny Ramirez hiding out somewhere. Manny in turn found his bat and carried the Sox in the ALDS. (I'm sure his game-winning homer in Game 2 is still orbiting next to Hubbell.) But some serious question marks arise with the Sox hitting and pitching. How good really was the pitching against the Angels? Or was it that the Angels meager hitters just went into a collective funk? Hard to say, really. As for the hitting, I have the same thought. Did the Sox bats come alive or were Angels pitchers so beat up physically from the regular season that there was nothing left in the tank for the Sox? True, the Sox beat John Lackey, but then again they always do. And they had no problem with a sore-shouldered Kelvim Escobar and a less-than-healthy Jared Weaver. So which is it? I don't know. We know this: Josh Beckett is a stud and the Tribe will see him at least 2, and possibly 3 times in the series. Daiska Matsuzaka was just OK in game 2. Schilling looked great, but he is getting old AND The Tribe are a much better hitting team fastball team than the Angels. Concerns? A hungry Indians club....

NLDS: COLORADO ROCKIES VS. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Prediction: Colorado, 4-3
Comment:

How the hell do I NOT pick the Rockies? They've won 17 of their last 18 to get here. They're getting outstanding pitching, outstanding hitting and making great managerial decisions. Most importantly, they've got that "magic Cinderella thing" going on that's really, really hard to ignore. Matt Holliday, Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe are not household names unless you're baseball dork like me. But on top of the 3H Club (as I call them) they're getting hitting from the unknowns, as always happens in the playoffs. Jeff Francis and Ybalado Jiminez pitched extremely well. So, too, did Josh Fogg. And Fogg with his penchant for given up the long ball, is the real wild card here. A lot will possibly hinge on how well he does or doesn't pitch in Game 3. IF he pitches well, it could really boost the Baby Rocks. Finally, I'm a firm believer in post-season magic. Never, ever discount or underestimate it. Can they continue this winning pace, though? There's one guy who may have an answer....

Brandon Webb. Despite his 1-3 record against the Rockies during the regular season, with two of those losses caming early in the season when he was struggling mightily, Webb is as tough a pitcher as they get. As usually happens with good pitchers like Webb, they get better as the season wears on. Webb shut down the Cubs big hitters and he'll have at least 2 opportunities to do the same to the Rockies. Then there are the D-Back hitters. How does a team give up more runs than it scores in a season and still make the playoffs? On top of that, rank 28th in all of baseball in runs scored. (Only the White Sox and Giants scored fewer runs.) Answer: Clutch hitting. I can't find their Runs In Scoring Percentage for the year, but it has to be other-worldly given the team .250 batting average. And that will be the key for them in the playoffs, too. Get timely hitting. Apart from Webb, Livan Hernandez and Doug Davis could a.) Implode at any moment or b.) pitch gems and keep their team in the game. A lot will hinge on them sending Rocky batters to the bench. If they don't, we could just witness a Mile High Miracle.

FINAL WORLD SERIES PREDICTION: Cleveland vs. Colorado. Not exactly what the networks wanted....

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Comments (6)

Spot on Peter.I hope... (Below threshold)
Robert:

Spot on Peter.
I hope you're right about your predictions as well.
One minor quibble: In this century (I know, only 7 years) there have been 7 different kings crowned in baseball vs. 4 in the NFL.

REALLY looking forward to Sabathia v Beckett on Friday.
Go tribe!

Ok, I can accept your opini... (Below threshold)
Darby:

Ok, I can accept your opinion on this manner.

But I got a few facts I'd like to point out here that kind of tell a different story about what this series is going to shape up to be.

All numbers can be found here.

Record:
Overall: 96-66
Home: 51-30
Road: 45-36

Best record in the league(They won the tie breaker, for those who don't follow baseball and lookup the Indians record and see it's the same as the Sox). .588 win percentage at home. Fenway is LOUD man... And the Indians need to come to our house to play first. I'll take that any day of the week.

They're 2nd in the league, with a huge .800, in win percentage only behind the Mets(Who happened to have the 2nd biggest choke in all of sports history).

Hitting:

No one gets on base more than Ortiz. With Manny in great shape and his swing and power is back... That's gonna hurt, ask the Angels. As you said, that walk off he hit still hasn't come down yet.

Yeah the Home runs are down. But doubles are way up there. These guys can hit. All of them(Especially if J.D. Drew wakes up and smells the coffee). Heaven help the Indians rookie pitchers facing this lineup.

Pitching:

Um... Overall ERA... Number 1
Um... Starters Era... Number 1
Um... Bullpen ERA... Number 1
Opponents Batting Average... Number 1.

So, overall the Indians are facing the best MLB pitching staff of 2007 on the whole... I like those numbers.

Fielding:
2nd in the league behind the Blue Jays! The freaking Blue Jays, and you're telling me that the Indians are gonna beat the Sox? I don't think so.

Overall
This is going to be a good series. The Sox are 5-2 against the Indians in the post season. Historically. So I like the chance the Sox have.

I think it'll be Red Sox in 6 games.

Your 'homerism' aside, Darb... (Below threshold)
Peter F.:

Your 'homerism' aside, Darby, nice job on the stats. All very, very good points. I have no argument against them except for the intangibles--which can't be ignored--that I mentioned in the article.

Tell you what, though. Should the Sox go to the Series and win it all, can the Red Sox Nation do the rest of the United States and all of baseball a favor? Shut the hell up about how cursed you all are for the next 25 years or so. Some us, particularly as a Giants fan who hasn't seen a Series champ since 1954, are really tired of the whining noise coming the Red Sox Nation. ;-)

And seeing as how the both the Red Sox AND White Sox lifted decades-long curses, it would be poetically fitting for the Tribe to take down the Sox and get a shot to win it all.

That's why I'M rooting for the Tribe. ;-)

with all the talk about Coo... (Below threshold)

with all the talk about Coors Field being a hitters park because of the altitude, I thought it was interesting that there were fewer hits in colorado than in Philly.

If Colorado, now up 2 games... (Below threshold)
Frog:

If Colorado, now up 2 games to 0 over Arizona, goes on the sweep the NLCS and the World Series, what's next? 161-1 record next year?

This will make any baseball... (Below threshold)
BaseballFan:

This will make any baseball fan's day. Esp. if your rooting for the indians.!

http://www.bestweekever.tv/2007/10/18/bwe-sports-only-one-more-piece-to-go/


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