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Analysis: Abreu to Yanks

When you get right down to it, this is exactly what the New York Yankees need to keep up with their wretched pitching staff: one of the top hitters in the last half dozen years.

Yesterday, outfielder Bobby Abreu and journeyman pitcher Corey Lidle were traded from the Philadelphia Phillies to the Yankees for, well, the always-popular and fan-pleasing prospects. And, when you consider the depleted Yankees farm system, it's even less to brag about. The Phillies did get former 2005 No.1 draft pick and shortstop CJ Smith and a 27-year old reliever and two other prospects whom are known only to God.

With Yankee outfielders Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui set to return from major wrist injuries later on this month or in early September, the addition of Abreu gives the Yankees some offensive insurance just in case Matsui or Sheffield experience any setbacks. If Sheffield and Matsui comes back healthy then hold onto your seats, this lineup makes Murderer's Row look like Petty Thieves Row.

Of course they'll need this type of lineup. Because this trade doesn't really do much for the sorry-state of the Yankee pitching staff. Mike Mussina has been the Yankees only consistent starter since April. Randy Johnson, Jamey Wright and Chin-Ming Wang have been inconsistent and unreliable from start to start. Lidle does nothing to offset that. A decent number 4 or 5 starter on most teams, Lidle is just another fill-in-the-blank, back-of-the-rotation starter. And they've got plenty of those. In typical Yankee fashion, they overpaid for mediocrity when they needed an ace.

With John Smoltz, Jason Schmidt and Jason Schmidt available, this trade doesn't make much sense for the Yankees.

As for the Phillies, the fans can only hope GM Pat Gillick knows what he's doing. Other than cutting the budget.

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Comments (15)

Aw, crud. Scratch that one ... (Below threshold)
Peter F.:

Aw, crud. Scratch that one Jason Schmidt and insert Roy Oswalt.

This trade makes perfect se... (Below threshold)

This trade makes perfect sense from a yankees standpoint, take on a contract of an overpaid player and throw in a mediocre pitcher for some young talent and volia, a typical yankee deal.

Bobby Abreu should not be i... (Below threshold)
Roy:

Bobby Abreu should not be in the same sentence with "mediocrity" He is a Hall of Fame player, the base-stealing ability of Damon, the batting eye of Giambi and the batting ability of Jeter.

No matter what the Yanks do... (Below threshold)
JoJo:

No matter what the Yanks do, they still will kick butt and be a contender in the world series.

Roy:I was referrin... (Below threshold)
Peter F.:

Roy:

I was referring to Lidle. Read the post again.

JoJo:

Maybe...long way to go.

Look, everyone hates the Ya... (Below threshold)
ollie:

Look, everyone hates the Yankees. But this deal really makes sense for them. Maybe hes having a down season, but Abreu has had a history of being a power guy that can bring talent to the table, and with sheffield and matsui out, the yankees need more power.

check out olliessportstalk.blogspot.com for more sports news

I don't hate the Yankees. T... (Below threshold)
JoJo:

I don't hate the Yankees. Those who do hate them is only because they are just mad how dominant they've been throughout history, and maybe because of an ocassional idiot on the team.

Strange how such a lopsided... (Below threshold)
LenS:

Strange how such a lopsided deal has managed to work for both teams. The Yankees got the extra offense to compensate for that pitching and the Phillies changed their attitude (and clear a lot of space for free agents and extending Howard and Utley). Now if the Phillies could just persuade Burrell that there are plenty of good-looking women waiting for him in some other city, then the house cleaning can be finished.

How can you call Bobby Abre... (Below threshold)
JTStally:

How can you call Bobby Abreu "one of the top hitters in the last half dozen years." He wasn't one of the best hitter on the Phillies (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley) and isn't on the Yankees (Derek Jeter, Gary Sheffield). Furthermore, he certainly can't be considered better than great hitters like Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Vlad, Travis Hafner, Ichiro, and Miguel Tejada. Although his average might not be as good as Abreu's, David Ortiz is definitely a better hitter. He hit over .300 in 2004-05 and against a ridiculous shift has hit .287 with 47 HRs this season.

Don't get me wrong, this trade was good for the Yankees, I just lost faith in the article when it gave Abreu such a lofty status. A Philly friend of mine said: "I would have traded Bobby Abreu for a bag of practice balls." I responded: "Good, 'cause that's basically what you got." I agree with this article that the Yankees pulled a good deal; I disagree that Abreu is really THAT great.

Had to respond to this....B... (Below threshold)

Had to respond to this....Bobby Abreu is not worth his huge contract. To call him "one of the top hitters in the last half dozen years" is a joke...the man just isn't clutch and his fielding ability is vastly overrated.

He plays indifferent baseball...he will never be the player he should have been and he is only getting older. The Phillies were smart to get rid of him, save the money, and build around Ryan Howard. Abreu will not keep this pace up and in two season he will be an afterthought in New York.

Good riddance.

David & JT:Judging... (Below threshold)
Peter F.:

David & JT:

Judging by your addresses apparently you're both not doing your homework at USC.

Whoever said that I said Abreu was great? However, calling him "ONE of the best hitters in the last half-dzoen years" is a very accurate and easily backed statement. Since 1998, abreu's had a .300+ average every year except one; averaged 20+ HRs; posted 25-40 steals; 100+ runs six out of the last seven years; 100+ RBI four out of the last five years; walking 100+ times seven years in a row; has hit an average of 35+ doubles; and has a career and very respectable .982 fielding percentage.

So, yeah, he IS one of the best hitters in the last half-dozen years.

Have his home runs gone down since the HR Derby in 2005? Hell yes. Has he been clutch for the Yankees? You bet your ass he has been. Without him, the Boston Massacre doesn't occur...period.

So, while some undedcuated and brain-dead Philly fans wanted him out of there for whatever stupid reason--be it his contract, alleged so-so fielding or whatever--he is undoubtedly ONE of the finest and BEST hitters of the last half-dozen years. His numbers, while not in the very same class as Pujols or A-Rod or Manny, he his defintiely one of the top 15 position players in baseball over the last half-dozen years. He's a five-tool player, a la Carlos Beltran.

But to call my analysis a joke is in itself a joke. And a not very well thought out one at that.

Ok here's my homework:... (Below threshold)
JTStally:

Ok here's my homework:

My batters:
Ryan Howard
Chase Utley
Derek Jeter
Albert Pujols
Manny Ramirez
Vlad
Travis Hafner
Ichiro
Miguel Tejada
David Ortiz
Gary Sheffield (he'll be excluded in this year's stats due to his injury)

Best to worst:
BA (this season): Jeter, Tejada, Vlad, Manny, Pujols, Ichiro, Howard, Hafner, Utley, ABREU, Ortiz

HR (this season): Howard, Ortiz, Pujols, Hafner, Manny, Vlad, Utley, Tejada, Jeter, ABREU, Ichiro

SLG (this season): Pujols, Howard, Hafner, Ortiz, Manny, Vlad, Utley, Tejada, Jeter, ABREU, Ichiro

True, he has 27 SBs, but how does that make him a good hitter? And, how does a good fielding percentage affect his hitting? You really had to stretch on that one, huh? Admittedly, one of the most impressive parts of his game is his ability to take walks, and yes, I'm a new age guy, I believe that makes a player a good hitter. As far as runs and RBIs, that's more just a product of the team and probably shouldn't be included in the argument.

I stand fully by my statement. Bobby Abreu is certainly NOT "one of the best hitters in the last half decade." If by that statement you intended to include 20 batter or so, you should have said that and I would have included Bobby.

I can still name more, better hitters not included in my argument: A Rod, Junior, Bonds, Giambi, Chipper, Berkman...

Please if you still don't think I've done the homework let me know, I'll keep digging it up.

I want to clarify that I believe Bobby Abreu is a very good hitter, having a "+.300 avg, and +20 HRs" in many seasons proves that. However, you just can't throw around the phrase "one of the best hitters in the last half decade" on any good hitter. It implies that he's at least in the top five, if not top three, and is by no means true. I hope you understand my point.

JT:The statement "... (Below threshold)
Peter F.:

JT:

The statement "one of the best in the last half dozen years" is decidedly noncommital, and therefore does not—actually no where near—imply Abreu is in the top 5 or 3. No way. Without actually digging deep into Abreu's stats at the time of my original writing and where he actually stands among his peers, this is a reasonable statment and not as arbitary as you might believe.

Now, since you've seemingly asked me to back this up with stats, I will. And I will use "new age"/"Moneyball" stats to do with my apologies to BIll James in advance.

Before I begin, let's agree that the likes of Billy Beane, Theo Epstien and JP Riccardi are the followers of sabermatician genius, Bill James—who does rely on stats like slugging percentage to measure a player's ability and to compare him to his peers. So these young guns GMs also rely heavily on OBP (on-base percentage), SLG (slugging percentage) and the all important OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage); there are other factors, but these are the biggies.

Let's also, for the sake of the last 6 years, throw out the likes of Howard and Utley, who have only been in the league 18 months. Let's also give Hafner the boot only been around for half of the 6 years. And let's boot Junior, too–he's been so banged up since leaving Seattle that he can't even hold a candle to the guys on this list. (I love Howard, Ultey and Pronk by the way, they will be forces for years to come, but for the sake of the argument they have to go.) Perhaps we could have included Thome, Teixeira, Delgado, Miguel Cabrera and a few others. But they're either too young, too banged up (Thome) or injured (Delgado, though he comes in top 10 in a few figures).

So here are the players I used (using many of yours which I completely agree with):
Manny, Pujols, Bonds (why leave him out?), Ichiro, Vlad, Papi, A-Rod, Beltran, Berkman, Miggy, Sheff, Jeter and Chipper.

I'll list this by going (OBP/SLG/OPS). I'll also use a "+/-" indicate that this number is a rough guesstimate and could be generally higher (or lower) but is a fair approximation. I use a "+" to indicate that the number is likely higher.

Manny: .427/.600+-/1.050+-
Pujols: .416/.600+-/1.037
Bonds: .500+-/.790+-/1.200+-
Ichiro: .337/.442/.819
Vlad: .391/.580+-/.977
Papi: .366/.550+/.900+
A-Rod: .395+-/.610+/1.000+
Beltran: .370+-/.520+-/.875+
Berkman: .410+-/.535+-/.970+
Miggy: .340/.480+-/.850+-
Sheff: .400+/.580+/.975+
Jeter: .385+-/.450+-/.830+-
Chipper: .410+-/.520+/.920+-

And what about Abreu? .410+-/.530+-/.940+-

Where does that rank him? 4/9/7. (He is virtually tied for 4th and 9th, I realize that.) Overall, that puts him in the Top 10. Thus making him "one of baseball's best hitters in the last half dozen years".

Most importantly, let's remember how OBP is calculated: Hits + Walks + Hit by Pitch /At Bats + Walks + Hit by Pitch + Sacrifice Flies. And OPS just adds SLG percentage to the mix.

As you can tell, he and Chipper have similar numbers. What shocked me is that Abreu has roughly the 4th best OBP, behind only Manny, Albert and Barry (and roughly tied with Berkman and Jones at around .410.) The most overrated on this list are obviously Ichiro (the word "walk" is strangely missing from his lead-off hitter's vocabulary), Jeter (no surprise here) and Miggy ("Mr. Swing At Everything" as Beane calls him). Sheff's numbers are truly impressive as are Papi's. (Almost forgot: I forgot Giambi: His nuimbers actually knocked Abreu down to 5/9/8.)

I understand your point, JT. But I just believe you incorrectly misread my saying "half-dozen years" comment as implying that Abreu is in the Top 3 or 5. That's just not implied at all. Yet, clearly, even after factoring in Giambi's numbers, Abreu is in the overall Top 10 without much argument—lower Top 10, but Top 10 all the same. Making him (repeat after me) "one of the top hitters in the last half-dozen years"... ;-)

Good argument. I agree, we... (Below threshold)
JTStally:

Good argument. I agree, we definitely disagree as to the phrase "one of the best." Good support though and I agree with your point that Abreu is a very good hitter. I'm worried his loss of power might show he's over the hill at this point, but that does not factor in the last half-dozen years.

I agree in that I think Abr... (Below threshold)
Peter F.:

I agree in that I think Abreu's beginning that downward slide; his marked decrese in HRs is startling, especailly since last year's HR Derby. Personally, I think that contest really f***s up a hitter's swing.

Save for Ryan Howard.


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