Today, NFL.com asks: Which first-year head coach will have the most wins in 2006? Of 22,000-plus respondents, we learn that:

• 28%: Brad Childress (Minnesota)
• 18%: Gary Kubiak (Houston)
• 15%: Sean Payton (New Orleans)
• 12%: Mike McCarthy (Green Bay)
• 11%: Scott Linehan (St Louis)
• 9%: Rod Marinelli (Detroit)
• 8%: Eric Mangini (NY Jets)

I vacillated between Childress, Marinelli, and Mangini for a while, but eventually went with Marinelli because of all these teams, I believe he has the best chance to pick up victories in a relatively-weak division. Chicago is a powerhouse, but Green Bay is rebuilding this year (even if Favre comes back, they've still lost a lot of great players), and Minnesota is riding on Brad Johnson's shoulders (he's good enough to win, but what if he gets injured).

I think the Jets will surprise a lot of people this year -- last year, they were decimated by injuries, but unlike the 2004-2005 Panthers, they weren't able to come back in the second half of the season. Even without John Abraham, they have a good defense and their offense can produce as long as they don't hang their hopes on Pennington or a rookie.

Hmm... maybe they won't do so well.

The Lions, as I mentioned, will probably get the most wins out of the teams listed. They have a runningback who is capable of getting 1000 yards in a season, and two backups who do good work (dunno if either one has been released or traded, but for Marinelli's sake, I hope not). They have excellent receivers. The defense is better than people think. I'm not saying they'll do awesomely, but six wins... maybe seven.

Scott Linehan will do a good job with the Rams, but unless they start spending on defense and putting the ball into the hands of Steven Jackson a lot more, they'll only be a perennial wild-card, and nothing more, especially with the rising Cardinals.

Green Bay is in trouble this year, with or without Brett Favre. They'll be fun to watch, but they won't win more than six. Rodgers is too green (I say that now, but remember Tom Brady) and Favre is trying too hard to carry the whole team out there.

New Orleans is an interesting team to look at. Without Aaron Brooks -- and with Drew Brees, if he's healthy -- I think they can do some damage, but the NFC south is probably the toughest division in football right now, and facing playoff-caliber teams like the Panthers, Bucs, and Falcons twice apiece, even with Drew Brees under center and even with the offensive talent they have, I don't think they'll do that well.

And, finally, the Vikings. They'd better start engineering a trade or finding a new QB now, because Brad Johnson won't last forever back there in the pocket. I'd rather have him than Drew Bledsoe or Mark Brunell -- he seems less likely to throw a bad pass or force it into coverage -- but even with decent receivers (which they need more of) and a good runningback (Chester Taylor, who I think will do great things behind the left side of that monster line) and a talented defense, a QB who engenders doubts can bring the whole team down. Johnson doesn't necessarily engender doubt right now, but one good hit and the Vikings could be in trouble.