I am aware I haven't posted here in a while, I am also aware that nobody is talking about baseball half as much as they possibly should. I dunno, I can't wait for football season to start either, but until then - I'd like to share some thoughts on baseball season. This will be cross-posted here, so leave comments there. Thanks.

NL East:

Once again I think that the NL East is going to be the toughest division this year, even more so than the AL East. The Nationals are holding the top spot right now, but hell, Philadelphia is in last place - only 1.5 games behind. So they can't be feeling too bad. To put it in perspective, in the NL West Arizona is 3.5 games behind San Diego & in second place. So the Phillies have a valid shot, even as crappy as they have been playing. Thome is in a horrendous slump and their pitching is just not holding up. And that's what it's really going to come down to this year for this division, the Braves need to find a bullpen guy who can hold the lead & the Nationals staff is going to start showing their weakness as soon as their defense breaks down. I'm still liking the Braves here - the statistics within my lifetime almost dictate another Division crown & playoff loss.

NL West & Central:

The NL West & NL Central are going to be much more cut and dry the rest of the year. Both the Padres & the Cardinals are starting to pull away from the pack, and both teams have little contention. The Padres are threatened only by Arizona and the Dodgers, but only if Gagne can stay healthy. He's holding down one run leads and they are really skating on thin ice. Colorado has the second worst record in the league thus far, and San Francisco is playing minor league ball without their biggest hitter in the lineup. Barry Bonds, who hopefully will retire at the end of the year, is still recovering from quitting steroids. Yeah, believe whatever you want to. The Cardinals are going to have to watch out for Derek Lee and the Cubs. Lee could very well win the triple crown this year, which would look better next to at least one playoff win. But the Wild-Card is going to come from the NL East, so the Cubs have to really step it up if they want to un-seed the Cardinals, who with the addition of Mulder to the pitching staff are going to be hard to beat. The rest of the Central is just meat for the winning teams, with the Reds, Pirates, Brewers & the surprising Astros watching their playoff hopes wash away. Will Clemens play another year with after a losing season? Will he end up in pinstripes again by the end of the year? I hope not.

AL West:

On to the American League. The AL West is turning out to be an exciting division to watch. I liked the Rangers last year to go to the playoffs, but they blew it down the stretch. This year, I don't see that happening. They have the young hitters and power defense behind an adequate pitching staff, and this year - that should do it. But the Angels are nipping right on their heels, tied with them for first. Not much has changed in the Angels lineup since that World Series run a few years back, and they pose a serious threat to the Rangers, as well to any other team aiming for a Wild-Card spot. This year, the Wild-Card could come from the AL West, possibly shutting out the Red Sox or the Yankees. Seattle shouldn't be counted out either. Although they are already 8 games behind, they have possible spoiler potential going into late series' with their division rivals. Their defense has been a problem, as well as unexpected slumps for Sexton & Beltre - two sluggers who just aren't slugging. Oakland is in a rebuilding year, so don't even speculate that they'll make a late run at anything.

AL East:

The Yankees are 7 games behind the powerful Orioles. Did I read that right? The Yankees are 7 games behind the Orioles? Something has finally shifted in the dynamic of the AL East. The Yankees are fighting to stay out of last place, but are still several games behind Toronto & Boston. What is up with the Yankees this year? As a Yankee hater - I'm loving it. Their pitching is faltering, their hitting is sub-par, they are literally dragging their feet. They have become the Raiders of Baseball. A collection of aging superstars and over-paid pitchers who shouldn't be starting anymore. Yes, I'm talking about Pavano, Johnson & Brown. Only Mussina is showing any gas this year, and only A-Rod & Jeter are showing any gas on the field. Even the venerable Bernie Williams is starting to show his age. The Yanks will be shut out of the playoffs this year, and after the season ends - heads will roll. The Orioles meanwhile, are on a roll. Sportcenter bobbleheads are still pondering if they are for real. Well, they are. Is it a surge from the arrival of Sosa in the offseason? Or a competent farm system producing young, consistent pitchers? Or are they just lucky? Brian Roberts, although injured right now, is having a career year. Even Palmiero is playing like it's his rookie season. The O's will take this divison, but not before facing stiff competition from the Red Sox. The Sox are going to have to shed their ego's before that happens though. With the Yankees under their thumb still and a nice big shiny trophy in the locker room, the Sox are still running on that glow. But it'll wear off, and they'll have to rely on themselves. They've managed already to make some pretty silly defensive errors this year, which can't be afforded once it comes down to a Wild-Card race. The Blue Jays are looking good - for the Blue Jays, but while their pitching should remain solid, their offense & run support will falter. I expect them to be fighting with the Yankees & Devil Rays to stay out of last place. I don't expect the Devil Rays to completely lock up last place, but they are only on pace for about 50 - 60 wins, so it shouldn't be too hard.

AL Central:

Ah. The good 'ol AL Central. Let's start with my boys, the Indians. Unlike some fairweather fans - I am a fan of the Indians whether they win or lose, and lately it's been more losing. This is a team who last year nearly took the wind out of the Twins sails, and should have started off this season power hitting their way to the top of the divison. Well, it took a lot longer than expected for the bats to warm up. And although Lee, Sabathia & Millwood are pitching well, once again the bullpen is not holding down the leads. Even Wickman, at one time one of the best closers in the league, is blowing leads in the ninth. They are starting to crawl back though, scoring more runs and forcing a lot of extra innings games once again. They seem to have a penchant for doing that, now, if they could only win all those extra inning games. The Indians, even though they aren't doing too well, are another team with a strong farm system. Jody Geruit, Coco Crisp, Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez & Sabathia have a chance to become the backbone of the Indians franchise. Even 11 games behind the White Sox, the Indians have all the elements in place to dig themselves out and make a run at the division crown. One reason I can say that without favoritism is that unlike the Orioles, I don't think the White Sox can hold onto their league leading best record. I believe that their run of luck will come to an end. They aren't getting huge run support or major offense. They are playing behind amazing pitching. But what makes a good hitter is being able to figure out the other teams pitchers - it can be done. And the Twins & Indians have good hitters, they will start to pick apart the White Sox pitching staff. It'll take some time, but there is plenty of season left, and the Twins and Indians have one common goal - to take out the White Sox. But the Twins also have great pitching, especially with Johan Santana - who figuratively owns the Indians. The Twins are another example of a great small market team with a fantastic farm league. But that's not going to be enough this year. To compete with the Angels, Rangers, White Sox, Indians & Bo Sox for a Wild-Card spot is going to be difficult. I think that although Santana will have another great year, it's only going to take one or two injuries to take the Twins out of it. And the Royals? What about the Royals? Worst record in the league, over 20 games behind. And no, I didn't forget about the Tigers. They may look like a contender, but they are still the Detroit Tigers. They will fall and become close neighbors of the Royals.

Playoffs:

For the Record,
AL East - Baltimore Orioles
AL Central - Minnesota Twins
AL West - Texas Rangers
AL Wild-Card - Cleveland Indians (yes, I'll admit - a bit of favoritism - but I don't get paid for this so who cares?)

NL East - Atlanta Braves
NL Central - St. Louis Cardinals
NL West - San Diego Padres
NL Wild-Card - Chicago Cubs

And that's that.