Falcons vs Eagles

Offense

The Falcons don’t do a whole lot very well. They don’t pass worth a damn (30th overall, 2412 yds, 15 TDs 16 INTs, 50 sacks). And though they threw for 1500 fewer yards than the Eagles they still gave away 5 more balls to the other team. QB Michael Vick runs like a bunny, sure, but after that even the RBs aren’t much to be impressed by.

Atlanta averages 5.1 yds per carry, but that’s with Vick’s 902 yds and 7.5 yd per carry average figured in. TJ Duckett hammers the yards out at 4.9 per carry, Warrick Dunn dodges along at 4.2. Not bad, but not worthy of the #1 ranked rushing offense this season, either.

And while 20 rushing TDs seems like a lot, the Falcons fell behind the Chiefs (31) and Chargers (24), two teams with a lot more balance and QBs who make Vick look like the weak link that he is.

Advantage: Eagles

Defense

For all the talk about how good Atlanta’s defense is, they really aren’t much to get excited over.

Vs the rush they’re pretty good at 9th, but Philly is a strong passing team (7th) and the dirty birds are only 22nd vs the pass.

In addition to throwing to the wrong team too often on the rare occasion that Vick slums with the less gifted, less elevating QBs, he’s fumbled 16 times this season (which is kind of strange, because the whole team is only credited with 14 fumbles according to NFL.com).

Advantage: Eagles

-- These two teams are good at stopping what the other team already doesn’t do well. Philly has a pretty good pass defense (12th), but the Falcons (30th) themselves are the best pass defenders the Eagles have.

The Falcons are good at stopping the run (9th), but the Eagles are already a weak run team (24th).

So each will see minimal benefit from the strongest aspects of their defenses. The interesting and decisive matchups will be strength vs relative weakness.

The Eagles #7 passing game vs the 22nd ranked passing D of the Falcons. The Falcons #1 ranked running game vs the Eagles 16th ranked run D.

Gut pick: Eagles

System pick: Eagles by more than a TD

My pick: Eagles

Why?

O lines:

The Eagles have given up 37 sacks in 547 passing attempts.

Even with Vick scrambling like a mountain goat the Falcons have given up 50 sacks in just 395 attempts.

And finally, the Falcons are a dramatically weaker road team than home team, both offensively and defensively.

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