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Race to the finish

There are 20 games left in the Cubs’ season. Just 20. That’s just a bit more than 12 percent of the season, but it’s gotten to the point — just a half game back of San Francisco in the Wild Card race — where every game the Cubs have from here on out is The Most Important Game of the Year, kind of like every rose ceremony on “The Bachelor” is the most dramatic rose ceremony ever.

The Cubs need to win only 11 to finish with a better record than they had when they won the National League Central in 2003. But for a team predicted to win the World Series, finishing out of the playoff race is inexcusable. Yes, there haven’t been back-to-back winning seasons since 1972. Yes, the team hasn’t made the post season in consecutive years since capturing National League crowns in 1906, 1907 and 1908. But all that changed last year when the Cubs showed they can be among baseball’s elite and then remained in contention through all of this season.

Those 20 remaining games will be played in 19 days, thanks to Hurricane Frances. The Cubs finish against Pittsburgh today, then head out on the longest road trip of the season, including four games in Cincinnati, a Monday doubleheader in Miami, then three games in Pittsburgh and three in New York before coming back to Chicago to end the season against the Reds and Braves.

While it is true the Cubs have the easiest schedule in terms of opponents, coming out of this smelling like roses is still a difficult task. The only true advantage the Cubs have is that, due primarily to the three missed games with the Marlins, no team in the wild card chase has fewer losses. What that means is if every other team wins its remaining games — a statistical impossibility, since the Giants still play both the Astros and Padres — the Cubs will win the wild card by one game.

The best prediction is that this year’s playoff chase will go down to the final weekend, just like last season, when the Cubs clinched by sweeping a doubleheader from Pittsburgh while the Brewers took three of four in Houston.

It may be foolish to write off Houston again, but it seems that San Francisco and Florida pose the biggest impediments to the Cubs winning the wild card.

The Giants play tonight and Thursday in Milwaukee, then host San Diego for three days, followed by three against the Astros and Dodgers before going on the road to face the Padres and Dodgers to end the season. They are off the next two Mondays. That will help, but those last six games on the road against divisional rivals could be brutal.

The Marlins are back in Miami for three with the Expos (after beating Montreal twice at Comiskey). They host the Braves for three, then enjoy that doubleheader against the Cubs (on the Giants first idle day, which means everything should be even the morning of Sept. 21) before hosting Philadelphia. The Marlins then hit the road to end the year with three game sets in Atlanta and Montreal and four in Philadelphia. That looks tough, but if any team can win on the road, it’s Florida.

Houston has much bigger problems, including five more games against St. Louis. If the Astros can manage not to get blown out of the water there, they could feast on six remaining games with the Brewers and the season-ending homestand against the Rockies. But don’t count on it. Houston also has two off days, but those three games in San Francisco could be disastrous.

The only safe prediction is another exciting playoff chase. Say what you will about the wild card, but without it, there would be no real pennant races in the National League this year, and only two in the American. The majority of baseball would be playing useless games right now, and that’s no way to keep fans from switching over to football.

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