Teams are listed in expected order of finish and team names are preceded by Rank within Conference / Rank within NFL.
AFC West
1/2. Broncos:
Denver has a lot of questions that, right now, seem to have positive answers.
Will the young but talented WR corps step up and fill in the void left when Shannon Sharpe departed for the broadcast booth? If camp reports can be trusted, this seems to be the best crop of young WRs that Denver has ever had.
Jake Plummer came in last year and performed better than anyone except coach Shanahan and OC Kubiak believed he could. He had the highest passer rating of his career (91.2, 5th best in the league), a career high completion percentage (62.6), his best TD / INT ratio (15 / 7) and the fewest sacks (14) that he’s ever had to suffer. All in his first year in Denver’s system.
He should be even better this season. But, can Jake Plummer stay healthy enough to lead the team through all 16 games? He missed four games last season due to injury (plus one game when Shanny was resting his players after clinching a playoff berth). In seven seasons he’s played a full 16 games only 3 times.
Will a stud RB step forward and carry the load? If not, will Denver’s committee of backs be adequate to the task? Both Quentin Griffin and Mike Anderson are having excellent camps, and Ahmad Gallaway, much to most fans’ surprise, is performing at a very high level. The loss of rookie RB Tatum Bell should still be a concern, but it looks like Denver can survive without him stepping up.
Will the reshuffled O line really be better than last year’s line? Mike Shanahan believes that it is, but can you trust the word of a HC? Would he tell us if the O line blew chunks? The move of Lepsis from RT to LT shouldn’t be a concern. He IS talented and he was one of the best LTs in NFL-E when he played a season there. RT should be where fans place their concerns, because George Foster, right now, has nothing but his status as a 1st rd pick in ‘03 and HC Shanahan’s confidence, to ease your concerns. Preaseaon will be telling, as this unit goes head to head with first string D lines for the first time.
The biggest question on the defensive side of the ball is with the LBs. The LB corps is still very talented and very strong. But, at least on paper, it’s thinner than last year. Another slew of injuries to this group could be debilitating.
However, that fear, or question, seems to have a pleasant answer, because these guys have also been surprisingly impressive as a group. It looks like Denver will, again, have even back up LBs that are better than many teams’ starters.
Denver has what should be an extraordinary group of DLs. DE Trevor Pryce is leaner and stronger, yet at the same playing weight as last year. DT Luther Elliss is healthy and should be in excellent form. DE Reggie Hayward had 8.5 sacks last year . . . as a backup. Starting opposite Pryce this season should see that total skyrocket. DT Nick Eason has performed so well in camp, that I would be surprised if he doesn’t spend some time backing up at DE, as well. The DL, side to side, is deeper than it has been in years . . . and that’s saying something.
The defensive secondary could actually be a strength for the first time in far too long. The additions of CB Champ Bailey and S John Lynch add not only skill, but toughness and leadership.
To this point in camp, Denver’s pass defense has performed amazingly well, getting to the passer, knocking down balls and coming up with INTs frequently and consistently. I can’t remember another camp where they were reported to perform not only this well, but this consistently well against the pass.
Denver’s defense could be scarey good this season.
As with the Eagles in the NFC, on paper Denver is the class of the AFC. Even if their offense stumbles, their defense could be one of the historically great units. Recent years have shown us that even a middle of the road offense can do great things when playing off the success of a rock solid defense.
9/18. Chiefs:
The Chief’s defense was a study in frustration last season. Ranked 29th overall, they were 19th against pts allowed, 30th vs the run and 20th against the passing game.
For a team who won 13 games, you’d expect KC’s rushing and passing defensive numbers to be reversed, with teams giving up on the run and going pass happy because they are behind. But that wasn’t the case. Why? Because it was more than just now-departed DC Greg Robinson’s schemes that made the Chiefs so bad, it was the personnel on the field. Just plain bad tackling didn’t help anything, either.
They were physically unable to stop the run and opposing teams knew it. How have they made themselves better vs the run? Who have to brought in to plug up holes and hustle to the runner – in case there are any KC Chiefs reading this, I should make it clear that “the runner” is the guy with the ball – ?
The answer is that they haven’t done a darn thing except to change defensive coordinators.
They brought back Gunther Cunniham and called it good. But he won’t do much of anything to improve a defense almost void of talent. A new scheme isn’t going to improve tackling. It isn’t going to make bad cover corners suddenly into good cover corners. It isn’t going to improve a weak LB corps.
The one area of hope on this defense is the pass rush of the D line. They didn’t overwhelm many opponents last year, but they were at least consistent, ranked 13th in sacks with 36. Gunther’s love of blitzing should help the line and increase the team’s sack performance, but it will also cause his weak secondary to get burned more often.
Rookie DT Siavii was a nice pick and he may be great some day, but he’s not going to come in as a rookie and dominate NFL O lineman. He’ll be the one getting dominated more often than not.
The offensive line is weaker with Tait fleeing to Chicago. Replacing him with a converted G or C just isn’t going to match up to the standard that Tait has set for KC. The Chiefs will be giving up more sacks offensively, an area they were very good last year allowing only 21 (4th best in the league), and Holmes will have a harder time running to the right side.
QB Trent Green was alternately brilliant and lackluster last season and there’s no reason for us to expect that to change, though even with his inconsistency he plays well enough within Vermeil’s system.
RB Priest Holmes turns 30 this season and his effectiveness as a runner is in decline. He’s not a threat to break a long one – his longest rush last season was just 31 yds. He’s never going to compete for the NFL rushing title.
Though his effectiveness as a goal line runner cannot be disputed, expecting him to put up another 27 TDs this season would be delusional. Will he put up 15? Maybe 20? Sure, but who makes up for the difference in his production?
Not the WRs’. The WR corps was so shoddy last year that the team was led in receiving by a TE (Gonzalez), with 71 catches. He finished 15 catches ahead of the nearest WR (Kennison).
Did the Chiefs address their needs at the WR position? Not through free agency and not through the draft. They got a rookie TE (Kris Wilson) in the 2nd round. Is he going to take playing time away from Gonzalez? Hardly. They then picked up WRs in the 4th rd (Samie Parker) and the 6th rd (Jeris McIntyre). Are they going to pick up the NFL game fast enough to take over the number one and two spots? More likely they’ll be on either special teams or the practice squad, if they make the team at all.
14/29. Raiders:
Following the blueprint that failed miserably in Washington, going so far as to hire that team’s lousy head coach, cannot be considered an intelligent plan of action.
Turner is a sorry excuse for a head coach, Ted Washington’s knee are so shot that he can’t play more than two downs in a row – though he’s still damn good for those two downs — , Warren Sapp is both slowed and gotten lazy and Ray Buchannan should be retired.
Overall, the D line is thin and without talent. The LB corps is just as shoddy.
Oakland lacks the personnel on the D line or in the LB corps to make a 3 - 4 OR a 4 - 3 work.
Their best Center failed a drug test, then failed his physical and got cut. The only RB worth a damn (Fargas) is fragile, others either are lucky to be backups or don’t belong in the NFL (Hambrick and Zereoue).
The O line gave up 43 sacks (tied for 24th) last year. OT Robert Gallery may have been the best player in the draft, but how much can one rookie O lineman do to stop that much bleeding? If you add rookie Center Jake Grove into the mix, you double the number of rookie mistakes the O line will make.
Jerry Rice is their best WR, and he can no longer carry an offense. Joey Porter gets a lot of hype, but never lives up to it. Tim Brown didn’t even make it to the first preseason game. Let’s face it, the WR corps doesn’t scare anyone.
It looks like QB Rich Gannon is being set up to fail in order to save Kerry Collins butt from the fire and keep him healthy for next season.
15/30. Chargers:
Ladainian Tomlinson isn’t just the best RB in the NFL, he’s one of the best players in the NFL. But one stud RB with little support from QB, O line or defense cannot lift a team on his shoulders and get very far.
The Chargers have really worked hard to get things turned in the right direction. They’ve gotten rid of some deadwood and they’ve brought in some players who are either minor upgrades or who add depth. They just have too many needs and still too little talent to expect much improvement this season.
The Chargers and Raiders will be in a season long dogfight to see who wins the coveted last place in the AFC West.