Teams are listed in expected order of finish and team names are preceded by Rank within Conference / Rank within NFL.

AFC South

2/5. Titans:

Dumping Eddie George has already improved their running game, allowing Chris Brown to step into the starting role. Unfortunately, Brown can’t be expected to contribute to the passing game as effectively as Eddie did. Don’t expect Antowain Smith to be much of a factor in any regard. When he’s not spelling Brown, he’ll be on the bench, unless he’s lucky enough to land a special teams gig.

With George gone, McNair loses his best outlet receiver. So he ends up holding the ball for longer more frequently and taking more sacks. So the question becomes, can McNair stay healthy? How much more pounding can he take and still remain healthy enough to be effective?

Tennessee’s Defense ranked in the middle of the pack last season, finishing the year ranked 12th overall and 13th against pts scored. With the loss of DE Jevon Kearse and DT Robaire Smith, can they maintain that? Neither player was replaced in free agency, and rookie DEs Laboy, Odom and Schobel, along with rookie DT Starks can’t be expected to contribute at a high level until at least midseason, and probably not until next year.

What saves Tennessee within the Division is the slide that Indy is going to take.

4/8. Colts:

Paid way too much to keep Peyton Manning and hurt the team in the process.

Edgerrin James is still productive, but is in noticeable decline. His replacement / backup should have been taken in this year’s draft, but wasn’t.

They lost some depth AND talent on defense and didn’t sign a single player on either side of the ball – because they couldn’t afford to, thanks to Peyton being a selfish jerk.

Defensive rookies will contribute this year, not because they’re ready, but because they have to. There isn’t enough veteran depth to justify leaving them on the sidelines most of the season. You’ll see guys who might otherwise be strictly special teamers or practice squad players, filling important back up roles, perhaps even starting if there are many injuries to verterans. Maybe this will help player development for next year, but it’ll just add a lot of mental mistakes to this year’s defense.

8/16. Jaguars:

Added talent through the draft and depth through free agency. Now, can Jack Del Rio pull it all together and get his talented rookies playing at an NFL level? I don’t have much faith in him, but this is another team that, on paper, should take a step forward this year.

And don’t jump up and down, all excited about their defense because it finished ranked 6th overall last season. The important and deflating thing is that they were ranked 18th vs pts scored. Who cares how many yds they don’t allow, if they can’t keep teams out of their end zone?

And don’t start waving your finger at me about how they finished with the 12th ranked offense, either. Because when it came to scoring points, the Jags offence came in 25th.

Jacksonville will improve this year. They won’t threaten the big dogs in their Division, but they won’t humiliate themselves, either.

11/20. Texans:

They’ve had a pretty good free agency period and draft, so should improve overall. The big problem is that while Capers insists on playing a 3 - 4, it isn’t what the Texans’ personnel are most suited to.

While they lost talent and depth at the LB positions, they’ve gained both on the defensive line. The 3 - 4 gave them the second worst D in the league last season. Sticking with it for ‘04 could give them the worst.

Offensively, they needed to add depth to the RB and WR ranks. That didn’t happen, though TE Mark Bruener should help a little bit with the running and receiving games.

While the offense may take a small step forward, the defense will keep the team and organization from making the move into the ranks of playoff contenders.

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