Teams are listed in expected order of finish and team names are preceded by Rank within Conference / Rank within NFL.

AFC East

3/6. Patriots:

The loss of DT Ted Washington has made the center of the Patriots’ defensive line smaller and weaker. Keith Traylor is a good player, but is not of the same quality as Washington and is not able to take over the center of a rush in the same dominating fashion. Dana Stubblefield is an even worse downgrade.

Defensive success begins with the line. With the D line taking a step backward, more pressure will be placed on the Patriots’ defensive secondary. More pressure will mean more breakdowns.

But the biggest problem for New England’s defensive secondary is the renewed enforcement of the League’s five yard chuck rule. This change will affect the Patriots more than any team in the NFL. The Pat’s DBs regularly raped opposing WRs down the full length of the field last season. With that strategy removed from their bag of tricks they become less imposing, less effective and far easier to beat.

Uncharacteristically, the Patriots grossly over paid for RB Corey Dillion, giving the Bengals a 2nd round draft pick for him. He no longer has the legs to be a feature back, so can’t carry a full load. Even in his prime he could only produce 1200 - 1300 yds per season. There’s no reason to believe he can duplicate even that at this point in his career. He also has a history of frequently fumbling.

There’s also the problem of the O line’s questionable run blocking skills and the loss of depth and talent with C Damien Woody leaving to start for Detroit and G Mike Compton – who started last season until he injured his foot – gone to Jacksonville.

The Pat’s O line does a great job of keeping QB Tom Brady’s butt intact, but they are not a premiere run blocking unit and helped New England to the 27th ranked rushing offense in the league. New England did nothing to address the problem in the off season.

Last year the Patriot’s offense in general was yawningly mediocre (17th overall, 12th in scoring). There have been no changes that would indicate an improvement. As the D slips and stops making up for offensive failings, things will get ugly for the Pats.

The ‘03 hassles with Lawyer Malloy began the poisoning of the “Team Unity” well. This year’s scrap with Ty Law let a little more venom seep into the equation. The addition of selfish, cancerous Corey Dillon may taint things to the point of being irreparable.

5/9. Bills:

They’ve had a quiet but quality off season, making important changes on the O line, the D line and defensive secondary.

The Bills should also have two quality runners in Henry and McGahee, but the biggest and most important change on offense is the firing of Kevin Gilbride as Offensive Coordinator. The Bills had the talent to win last year, but Gilbride’s philosophy and system were in desperate need of overhaul. He couldn’t or wouldn’t do that, so now he’s gone.

The Bills worst move was letting FB Sam Gash go, but they should be able to find an adequate replacement and the O line should be slightly improved with OG Chris Vallerial coming into the line up.

The signing of CB Troy Vincent and LB Jason Gildon make the defense a stronger, deeper unit. That’s saying something, because they finished ‘03 ranked #2 overall and #5 vs pts scored.

6/12. NJ Jets:

The Jets have ended up having a great off season, making some important moves in the free agent market and putting together a pretty good draft.. Rookie LB Jonathan Vilma will likely start immediately. They improved depth and talent across the defense through free agency. This is important because the Jets finished ‘03 ranked 21st overall (though they were an impressive 8th against pts scored (18.7).

While Curtis Martin has been amazingly consistent throughout his career, his average of 4.0, coupled with RB LaMont Jordan’s 4.1 yds per carry, just isn’t good enough to take the team to the next level. The team needs a boost in the running game, and I can’t see where that’s going to come from. Jordan is far more effective catching the ball out of the backfield, but he’s grossly under-utilized.

The WR’s are another area of concern, not because they are talentless, but because they lack the ability to help the team reach the next level. Their saving grace will be, one would hope, Chad Pennington remaining healthy for a full season. Can he do it? I’m not sure the O line is up to that task.

12/23. Dolphins:

Taking GM responsibilities away from Wannstedt is already proving foolish. The team has had a lousy FA period. Thanks to that, they have little talent and no consistency on the O line.

They brought nutty WR David Boston in to play opposite WR Chris Chambers. They signed A.J. Feely, Philly’s THIRD STRING QB, to replace the inconsistent Fielder, while failing to renegotiate Brian Greise’s contract.

Now, star RB Ricky Williams has decided, just a week before the opening of camp, that he’d rather spend his life getting stoned than playing football.

The only redemption for Miami this season will be the defense. Unfortunately, they played inconsistently last season, too, so what hope does this team really have?

If new Miami GM, Rick Speilman, had a brain in his head (and he has already shown that he probably doesn’t), he’d give up on this season. Sticking with it may be valiant, but it’s also stupid.

He should not trade for Philly’s backup RB, Corell Buckhalter, or Chicago’s backup RB, Anthony Thomas, or any other backup RB. None of them, or even any elite back, is going to put Miami into the playoffs. They’ve made too many mistakes this offseason and the team has too many problems at too many positions.

Throw in the towel, declare this a rebuilding season, and hurry up to get in lockstep with the 49ers.

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