Tom and I sorta mixed it up last week. I hope/think we've both retreated from offensive stances enough that we can have a good discussion. In any case, my apologies for overreacting, Tom. I do get touchy sometimes.

Let me start off explaining where I come from.

I am a big-time Chiefs fan. I was born near Kansas City, and raised in Montana where there are no regular sports teams shown, so I followed the Royals and Chiefs through the newspaper...I watched the Royals lose the series in 1981, and then win it all in 1985. But as my love of football grew, my love of baseball declined as much. I stopped watching baseball, and from 1986 on, I doted on the Chiefs. I had already loved them as underdogs through the 80s, and was too young to recall their heyday of the 60s and very early 70s. I didn't really even recall Joe Delaney, to tell the truth...although my brother's recounting of that tragedy merely cemented my fandom. I remember Macovic, and the Special-Teams led playoff berth. I suffered through the Frank Ganz disaster the next year. I remember Marty's first season of 8-7-1, and waiting around to just barely miss getting the wildcard playoff berth that season. I remember actually believing Matt Blundin was the Chiefs QB of the future. I am a homer.

I see no reason to believe in doom. Every season is a new beginning, and a new hope. I understand deeply that last year is often immaterial, that the difference between winning and losing a game is literally inches, and between a winning and losing season can be a handful of plays, and between a successful and disappointing year can be one significant injury. I understand that it is a chess match, and the wrong call at the wrong time gives up a touchdown, but the right call at the right time can allow a mediocre team to make a great stop to pull off an underdog win.

I get my knowledge of football from a few sources. Number One, and most important, is Avalon Hill's game of Paydirt. It's an excellent tutorial on the strategy of football, in that they use statistics to chart out a team's actual performance. They have a weighted dice system and a complex interaction of offense and defense that actually works so that teams play best when they play to the strengths they exhibited during the season. If you are in a run-prevent stack, a play-action pass is gonna be a big gain, if not a touchdown. If you pull people back into coverage, or take out an LB to add an extra DB, you are going to have a tough time stopping the run. One player up front can put the pressure on a QB to make a secondary look awesome; conversely, a top-notch secondary can give the lineman a chance to get big sacks and fumbles. The right call puts players in the location to make the play. The more of a safety net you give the players (multiple layers of defenders, etc), the less people you can have at the point of attack, and vice versa. A play-it-safe, bend-but-don't-break defense gives up lots of yards, but fewer points, but it depends on players to read things the same way. Familiarity of what player judgment is vital. An attacking defense, on the other hand, goes after the other team and tries to dictate to the offense...but it can get burned in large chunks.

Greg Robinson uses a read-and-react style of defense to not allow a big play. That gives up lots of yardage. With good players, they keep the opposing offense out of the endzone long enough to catch them in a mistake and get a turnover. That was the Chiefs in the 1st 9 games of the year. The offense got them ahead quickly in most of the games, making the opposing team press, which made it easier for the defense. In a handful of games, the defense wasn't able to hold the lead, but they kept it close enough to allow the offense the chance to win. Evidence? The Chiefs easily led the league in turnover differential. The players don't suck.

But in the 2nd half of the season, the QB of the defense couldn't play, and his replacement was an inexperienced rookie who wasn't ready yet. Lack of depth killed the season. Greg Robinson wasn't a good enough coach to recover from the loss of his smartest and most savvy defender, the one who called the defensive plays. Would Denver have won both Superbowls if John Elway had missed the final 5 games and first playoff game? Of course not. (Just the first example that comes to mind). With the defense unable to stop the opposing team's offense, and bad luck in scheduling teams with fairly good offenses at that point of the season, Greg Robinson began pressing, going for the big play to get the stop. Unfortunately, he was too predictable and didn't give his players safety help. Of course, better tackling would have helped, so the players aren't blameless. But bad tackling is league-wide right now, and I would think you should also hold the top defensive coach at least partially responsible for not ensuring his players knew how to tackle. But even worse, his scheme relied on the front line larging just clogging lanes and occupying blockers so the LBs could make the play. When Maslowski was in, they did. Once he was out, well....

The other source of my opinion is from Kansas City Dot Com's Ask Ivan Carter. This guy really knows football. He isn't a total homer like me, nor is he automatically derisive and critical like Whitlock (who flip-flops and plays favorites with players). Carter tells it like it is, and his observations on players are rarely wrong.

He's the one saying that the TE Wilson will help open up the offense. He's the one saying the coaches believe Key Fox was underrated in the draft and will push for playing time. He's the one who points out that Welbourne is a top-notch tackle with the right attitude, but that Bober and Williams are good enough to push Welbourne, and that it should be good enough to make us not miss Tait. You'd have to have been reading him over the last several weeks to get all that, but here's an example:

Greetings and hang in there. Training camp is right around the corner my friend. I wouldn't say that Brett Williams has progressed slowly. Dick Vermeil and the offensive line coaches have been pleased by what they've seen out of him. The decision to release Marcus Spears was made in part because they feel Williams has the ability to compete for playing time come camp. Now, I think that John Welbourne is going to be your opening day right tackle but Williams is important because he adds depth and because LT Willie Roaf isn't getting any younger. The problem Williams has is the same problem faced by several young players on the Chiefs (Larry Johnson especially) when you come to a 13-3 team with Pro Bowl type talent at numerous positions, it can be hard to get on the field and show what you can do.

Sure, there are still questions. Nothing in any of opinions should be taken to mean that disaster won't happen. If Maslowski isn't ready to play, if Kavika Mitchell didn't learn enough from being thrown into the fire last year, if Junior Siavii can't get the hang of the NFL, if Sims doesn't get motivated by his pride, if Julian Battle didn't learn enough to push any of the DBs ahead of him, if we have a few significant injuries on either side of the ball (although improved depth should make that less likely to affect things), the Chiefs will have a bad season, facing a stronger schedule.

Here are some more things from Ivan:

because the Chiefs have a mess of big bodies at the DT spot. There is going to be a ton of competition with a group that includes Ryan Sims, John Browning, Lional Dalton, Eric Downing, Eddie Freeman, Montique Sharpe and of course, Big Junior. As you can tell, I'm not a big WWE guy so my knowledge about Brock the wrestler is seriously lacking.

...As for position groups, I think that everything starts up front with the defensive tackles. I will continue to hammer this point home as training camp approaches and gets underway. The Chiefs simply can't allow opponents to gouge them for 5.1 yards per carry again. Can't happen. Now, the DTs weren't totally to blame for this scary stat but stopping the run does begin with them. The good news is this: I'm looking for big things out of Ryan Sims this season. He's ticked off by the way the defense was shoved around last season and he's ticked off by the way the media and fans have been dogging the defense. I think he's even a little ticked off at me. (Late in the season I wrote a story that carried the headline: "Damn Defense" As you can imagine, that didn't go over too well with some of the defensive guys although one of came up to me and said: "Were you wrong?") Anyway, if Ryan and the fellas can channel that anger into their play, this team is going to have a chance to win a Super Bowl and everyone will be happy.

...As for the backers, I think the biggest question involves MLB where Maz is still getting that knee right and where Kawika Mitchell and Monty Biesel will go to camp looking for PT.

...I'd say Kris Wilson simply because Al Saunders has proven so adept at getting the most out of every guy's talent in his offense. The kid has great hands and he seems to have picked up the offense pretty quickly.

... I think offensive line is the deepest part of this football team. The starting five will be LT Willie Roaf LG Brian Waters C Casey Wiegmann RG Will Shields and RT John Welbourn. That's a damn good line even with John Tait now doing his thing in Chicago. The backups offer depth and versatility. Chris Bober has played center, guard and tackle in five NFL seasons. Jordan Black has shown promise at guard and/tackle and Brett Williams is being groomed as a future tackle. In addition, the coaching staff has been thrilled with the talent shown by seventh round pick Kevin Sampson, also a tackle. On top of that, the Chiefs have two of the most respected offensive line coaches in the business in Mike Solari and Irv Eatman. The big question for this team is on the other line where Ryam Sims, John Browning, Eric Hicks, Vonnie Holliday and others cannot by allow teams to average 5.1 yards per carry this fall. If that happens again, it won't matter what's happening on offense.

...From what I hear, Priest is 100 percent and attacking the offseason the same way he did when he was an undrafted rookie trying to earn a spot on Baltimore's special teams. (No wonder why he's great)

... Key Fox is not only going to make this team, I wouldn't be shocked if he earned some playing time at outside backer. In OTAs and mini-camp, Fox showed excellent instincts. He seemed to quickly grasp everything that was being thrown at him and he seemed to always be around the football. Those are good signs. The book on him is that he's a very good tackler but sometimes struggled to get off blocks in college. I won't get you overly excited until I see him go up against Tony Richardson for the first time in full contact drills up in camp. It's always funny to see the rookie LBs the first time they get nailed by T-Rich. They always walk back to the huddle with their ears ringing and they always have a stunned look on their face like: "Damn, this ain't college anymore." T-Rich lays wood. As for fantasy thoughts, I wouldn't spend good picks on Chiefs wideouts. Al Saunders simply spreads the ball around way too much. And I'm not sure yet how Parker is going to fit into the mix. He's going to be battling for reps with Marc Boerigter and Dante Hall. He is fast though so that will give him a chance to get on the field in certain situations.

The thing is, all I was ever trying to do is point out that the national pundits say "The Chiefs added no one significant on defense" but they actually did in Siavii and maybe Key Fox. Aside from those two players (and two players can make a huge difference), the defense should be improved just because of another year together. No one is so old that they lost a step to age, chemistry is very important and quite underrated, and one thing I've believed for years (after hearing analysts mention it in the early stages of free agency after big name after big name busted with new teams) is that it often takes FAs until the 2nd year to make their biggest impact. And even if the defense is exactly the same, I think Gunther's scheme fits the players better. And if Gunther can't get better performance with his playcalling, early reports of Trent Green's improvement in accuracy to phenomenal levels, Priest Holmes improvement in health and strength to 2001 levels, and the addition of Wilson and some underrated WRs in Kris Wilson, Sammy Parker, and even Chris Horn-?- (back from injury and having done well in NFL-E), the offense might never trail in the first place. That would be a miracle in modern NFL football, but the Chiefs offense was awesome last year and might be even better if the WRs really do represent an upgrade.

But as I tried to say a few time, and as Ivan Carter makes clear: it ain't even training camp yet. His opinions are from watching the guys play without pads. I'm looking to how the Chiefs could do better next year. That isn't the same as "I predict they will." Just that there really is very little chance that next year will be a repeat of last year. Something's gotta give, and it usually does. In all likelihood, the Chiefs will either play in the AFC Championship Game (where anything could happen), or they'll miss the playoffs, and probably nothing in between. But I've gotta feeling (maybe nothing more than wishful-thinking Homerism) that this is the Chiefs' year. Everything is in place, and we have a good chance to surprise some people. If we do, you won't hear anything about the Chiefs' defense being sub-par, you'll see 8-10 Chiefs from both sides of the ball playing in the Pro-Bowl:
Priest Holmes
Trent Green
Tony Gonzales
Willie Roaf
Will Shields
Dante Hall
Jerome Woods
Ryan Sims
Greg Wesley
Scott Fujita
And Brian Waters, Tony Richardson, Dexter McLeon, Shawn Barber, and Eric Hicks will have a case for having been snubbed.

Maybe.