Greg Robinson’s defensive schemes helped the Denver Broncos win two SB’s. Not surprisingly, Denver's scoring defense was ranked 7th and 8th during that back to back SB run.
Then Denver’s defensive secondary started falling apart – and along with it the overall defensive performance – and Robinson was given the boot.
In comes “savior” Ray Rhodes. The Broncos’ defensive ranking jumped, but the secondary remained shaky. Two years of that was enough, and Larry Coyer was promoted to replace the departed Rhodes. Again the overall defensive rankings were impressive, and again the secondary had major breakdowns at critical times.
Somewhere during that long transitional period QB Brian Greise came and went, another sacrificial goat for the defensive secondary’s many failures. But, in the meantime Robinson moved on to KC and his schemes failed utterly and from the start. Robinson lacked the quality of defensive personnel he’d had in Denver. KC ended the ‘03 season with the 29th ranked defense in the league.
Gifted, intelligent players seem to thrive in Robinson’s schemes. Less gifted and less intelligent players get overwhelmed and overloaded and fail.
So Robinson’s schemes were good, but overly complicated for Denver’s deteriorating secondary and for KC’s entire stock of defensive personnel. Robinson lacked the ability or the willingness to scale things back for these less-able players. Now Robinson is co-defensive coordinator for a college team in Texas and Gunther Cunningham – a gifted coach and a class guy – has arrived as the savior of the moment in KC.
But Gunther is already being set up as KC’s scapegoat. He will fail and it won’t be the front office or the head coach who will suffer for their mismanagement of the defensive personnel. It’ll be Gunther who is wrongly made to look an incompetent fool and shown the door.
Gunther’s simpler schemes will help KC’s untalented, not-especially-bright defensive players to be more effective. But it’s a mistake to call Gunther’s system more aggressive, because fans and pundits will in one breath criticize Robinson’s schemes for being “too cerebral”. In the very next breath they will complain that he was too aggressive and shouldn’t have blitzed Dante Culpepper. Aggression can be found with either man’s schemes. Gunther’s just cuts down on a player’s need to think.
So KC’s D improves from 29th to . . . 25th? . . . 22nd? . . . 20th? Big deal. Gunther can’t even expect much help from his offense, so what difference will such a small improvement make? None of any meaning.
KC played a pathetically weak schedule last year. Their mighty offense beat up such defensive powerhouses as Houston (32), Oakland (30), San Diego (27), and Detroit (24), LOST to mighty Cincinnati (28) and was utterly destroyed by Minnesota (23).
Sure, QB Trent Green had five games of 300+ yds – including one 400 yd performance. But he also had five games where he didn’t even throw for 200 yds.
Priest Holmes was a great player for KC last year, but only a mediocre RB. He topped 100 yds rushing just three times. Four times he rushed for fewer than 75 yds, despite playing against weak defenses for most of the year. He was a great goal line weapon, but only average in his performance on the rest of the field. He’s longest run was only 31 yds.
So Green was inconsistent and Holmes was only serviceable as a rusher and is now 30 yrs old. There were no major changes or additions even on the offensive side of the ball, but KC did have an important loss.
RT Tait left KC, weakening the O line. KC will try to replace Tait with a converted Center (Bober) and a converted Guard (Welbourn). Expect Green to see more sacks and Holmes to get stuffed a lot more often this year.
So there isn’t even reason to believe that KC will be able to duplicate its offensive success from ‘03. KC is not a reincarnation of Vermeil’s Rams.
The Rams didn’t just bring in a new D coordinator and call it good. They upgraded defensive personnel. They also had much better offensive talent than KC has. KC is a shadow of that Rams team.
Gunther is in for a very tough year. Since coordinators usually take the heat for failings further up the chain of command, he could also experience a very short return to KC. And if the Raiders should surprise this season, KC could have trouble even taking 2nd place in the AFC West.
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Comments (5)
I'm a Chiefs fan and I have... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Missouri Dude | July 10, 2004 11:22 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I'm a Chiefs fan and I have to say you are right on your thoughts. But you are wrong about the prediction. KC's O will produce about same this year. If Our D can be the 20th we will win lot of games.
1. Posted by Missouri Dude | July 10, 2004 11:22 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on July 10, 2004 11:22
2. Posted by Tom | July 10, 2004 11:54 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
We could both be wrong and Oakland, by some miracle of Satan, pulls it all together this year and beats both Denver and KC. I seriously doubt that is possible, but this IS the NFL, so one never knows for certain.
Last year I predicted KC would win the AFC West, because I could see that what Vermeil was doing should be effective. I had to have faith in him after seeing what he did with the Rams. But this year he's made what, to me, are obviously bad decisions. He doesn't have the pieces in place, he didn't even try to get the pieces he needs, Holmes has hit that magic age for RBs and KC has a harder schedule than last year.
At the same time Denver has FINALLY upgraded it's area of greatest defensive weakness over the past few seasons; the secondary. They may very well have a historically great D this season. Their O may not be top 5 this year, but should still be top 10.
I don't see any realistic chance for KC to duplicate last years record.
2. Posted by Tom | July 10, 2004 11:54 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on July 10, 2004 11:54
3. Posted by Nathan | July 11, 2004 2:31 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Not bad, but I think there are a few flaws in your thought processes.
First, if averaging 1500 yards/season over the last three seasons and more TDs and the most rushing TDs in a season than anyone ever (and 2 of the top 3 TD totals by a RB ever) is merely mediocre for a running back, I'm wondering what harsh descriptions you have for the Patriots running game, or what Denver has in their backfield this year. Nothing nearly as good as Holmes' level of mediocrity, that's for sure. And last year's record setting TD total came when he started the season less than 100% from the injury in 2002. All accounts are that he's running stronger than ever before. You might be right that he will decline this year, but he did spend time on the bench, which is time he wasn't getting beaten down. His work ethic and attitude and the reports coming out of the minicamps indicate he looks stronger than ever and will have another top-notch year.
You point out that Trent Green had 5 games in which he didn't even pass for 200 yards. But KC only lost 3 regular season games all year...so I guess the "mediocre" running back and worst defense in the NFL combined to win two games all by themselves...?
I don't know. You could be correct in your assessment. But your explanations and criticisms don't explain anything about how they had a 9-game winning streak or won 13 games last year. They were criticized last year for not adding any significant players, as well, but things turned out better than anyone expected. Sure, they had a fairly easy schedule, but not as easy as the Pats schedule in their SB win 0f 2001, or as easy as the Ravens had in the year of their Superbowl win, or even the Broncos first SB win. Easy schedules are part of the system, you just take advantage of them when you get 'em. They did win the games they had to win. They did keep the losers losing and lost only to 2 playoff teams and the Vikings, who missed the playoffs on a near miracle, and all regular season losses came on the road.
Certainly, the schedule will be harder this year. 11-5 is certainly more realistic than another 13-3. Denver could easily eclipse them, or the Raiders could have another miraculous season and win the division...but I don't think so. Both teams have lost too many key players and added too many free agents. Even if most of the FAs play to expected levels (and usually less than half of free agents do), there will probably be problems with chemistry.
You say that Welbourn is a converted guard and Bober is a converted center as if that makes them inferior...do you ignore that the guy they are trying to replace wasn't originally a RT, either? He was switched there after he didn't really pan out at LT, the slot he was drafted to fill. There is no problem with "converting" a lineman, as long as they do the job. It happens all the time in the NFL. Again, all reports from the minicamp are that Welbourn shows the correct attitude, desire, and ability to replace Tait without a drop-off.
However, no one has put on pads yet. On paper, I concede it looks like Denver will be better. We'll see. Injuries can make a huge difference. Injuries decimated Denver last year, or it could have been more of a contest for the division title. Kansas City would have been devastated last year by an OL injury, but remained remarkably injury-free last year, and probably won't remain so lucky this year, which is why adding depth was judged to be more important than chasing after a risky free agent.
And I'm still not sure why you are so quick to discount KC's draft so easily as "no significant additions". The news media didn't rate KC's draft as being that good, no...but again, all accounts from the minicamps are that the Chiefs got a run-stuffing DL, a LB who could push for playing time on more than just special teams, a WR who could be the next coming of Azir Hakim and solid No. 4 receiver, a TE/H-back/FB in the mold of Frank Wycheck who catches everything and blocks well enough to draw some heat off of Tony Gonzales, and a 7th round OT that everyone thought was a project who has surprised even the Chiefs coaches with his potential to grab playing time this year. And that doesn't even include the league-high number of players sent to gain valuable experience in NFL-Europe...D-Lineman Montique Sharpe apparently starred there, and a couple of WRs gained some experience. So the draft produced 1-2 potential starters this year, 2-5 who will probably have a positive impact, and add to that 1-3 players who improved more than most by being in NFL-E... It's impossible to predict which, if any, will blossom unexpectedly, but it's something you have to take into account as a possibility.
It's a wide-open season, as it always is. Nobody has a lock even on the playoffs. But it seems clear the Chiefs will be above average, will probably make the playoffs, might win the division, and have at least a shot at winning the Superbowl. At the very least, it should be an enjoyable and exciting season.
3. Posted by Nathan | July 11, 2004 2:31 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on July 11, 2004 02:31
4. Posted by Tom | July 11, 2004 10:36 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
I won't have time to reply until Monday night at the earliest. By the time I get to it, this post could be off the page.
If you care to, clean your comment up (editorially and logically -- make it read like an article rather than a rebuttal), post it to the main site and I'll respond in the comments sometime in the next few days. If not, I'll comment here, but no one will ever see it except you and I.
4. Posted by Tom | July 11, 2004 10:36 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on July 11, 2004 22:36
5. Posted by Nathan | July 12, 2004 5:09 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Deal. Give me until Tuesday evening.
5. Posted by Nathan | July 12, 2004 5:09 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on July 12, 2004 17:09