After going through several preseason magazines and digesting the various judicious guesses and educated opinions found therein, I offer you the following personal pre-training camp, pre-season guide to the AFC West.

In order of predicted finish:

Kansas City: 11-5
How it could go good: As scary as it sounds to opposing defenses, KC's offense could actually be better this year: Trent Green is throwing with even more accuracy and confidence, Priest Holmes starts the season fully healthy and a renewed determination, they added a pass-catching TE and a speedy WR in the mold of Az-Zahir Hakim. They have added depth at nearly every position, including their glaring weakness last year: D-line. Young players like Julian Battle, Ryan Sims, Montique Sharpe, and Scott Fujita are poised for break-out years. Gunther Cunningham brings in a new defensive system and attitude that plays to the roster's strength rather than to its weakness. Dante Hall could win another three games all by himself.

How it could get ugly: If it is truly the players who are mediocre, then the Chiefs did very little to upgrade the defense and it could be a long year where you can tell the Chiefs W/L record by the number of punts the other team has to make. John Tait might not be replaceable at RT. The schedule is tougher this year, and the Chiefs may have squandered their best chance for home field advantage. Another year of badly-positioned players and missed tackles, and Kansas City will become known for suffering from a "Schottenheimer" curse to never win a playoff game ever again.

Strengths: QB, RB, TE, O-line + O-line Depth, FS & SS, Dante Hall, and turnover differential.
Weaknesses: D-line is a big question mark. They have the bodies now, but do the bodies have the skill? The CBs also have the potential to shut down opposing WRs, but have never yet fully demonstrated what they should be able to do, which says something about their heart and brain.

Bottom Line: How important is a coach? If Gunther can't make a difference, can KC's offense get far enough ahead to protect the problems and weakness on defense?
But if Gunther can maintain last year's ball-hawking while stopping one more big play per game, Kansas City will have an above average defense...even if only #14. If that happens and the Chiefs avoid injuries (which cannot be coached), then Kansas City goes 15-1, sets a record for scoring, wins the Superbowl, and goes down in the history books as one of the all-time great teams. Most likely, however, Kansas City will play well enough to edge the Broncos for the Division crown, but because of a tougher schedule, will actually have a worse record than last year despite being a better team. They will be in a position to make the Superbowl, but hardly a lock...not when there are so many potentially top-notch AFC teams, including the Broncos, the Colts, the Patriots, and the Titans. This will be an exciting year, and every victory will be tough and earned.

Denver: 10-6
How it could go good: Shanahan gets the most out of his players, and drafts very well. He has strong performers at every position, and depth at important places like the O-line, RBs, and DBs. If it weren't for a fluke injury to Jake Plummer at a bad point last season, they probably would have been in the AFC Championship game. They added one of the best DBs in the league. They drafted a potentially excellent running back that could make everyone say, "Clinton who?" Jake Plummer's abilities mesh wonderfully with what Shanahan tries to do, and with a whole year of experience together, they could be deadly to opposing defenses this fall.

How it could get ugly: Big changes at several important positions, including the D-Line, LB, WR, and RB. Does Shanahan create great running backs, or is it luck that might have finally run out? They added a relatively large number of free agents this year, and lost some significant players, including a franchise-level running back, their top sack-specialist on the D-line, and one (or maybe two, if Mobley doesn't return from a spinal injury) of their near-pro-bowl-quality starting LBs, Ian Gold. They've added someone to replace each of the losses, but the problem with free agents is they are, to some extent, an unknown quantity. They might turn out great, or they may turn out to have been a product of the system they came from rather than an actual all-star. Further, the problem with depending on free agents is that you have to be successful with nearly all of them...one or two underperforming players and your season is crippled. Can the running game be as good with the loss of two extremely underrated assets in blocking (McCaffery and Sharpe)? Champ Bailey is known for being a shut-down corner...but rumors are he doesn't tackle well...with the RBs in the AFC West, that could hurt. Finally, they have a brutal final schedule, taking on Miami at home, then having to go on the road to face Kansas City and Tennessee, and then facing Indianapolis at home again. There is a very good chance the Broncos could go 0-4 or 1-3 in these games, which would probably end hopes of winning the division and could possibly scuttle playoff hopes.

Strengths: Quarterback, O-line, RBs, Trevor Pryce (if not the D-line), Al Wilson (but probably not the LBs, unless their 1st round pick does well) and Champ Bailey (but probably not the DBs). Coaching.

Weaknesses: Wide Receiver. Susceptibility to injury. At this point of the year, far more questions than answers...

Bottom Line: The Broncos have the biggest upside of any team in the AFC West, and maybe the whole league. The new players they've added could be the missing ingredients for returning the Lombardi Trophy to Denver...or they could end up scrambling for a wildcard berth again. They must start fast, however, because even a short stretch of injuries to important players like Plummer, Wilson, or Bailey will mean a significant losing streak.

Oakland: 7-9
How it could go good: They've been very active in free agency, revamping the D-line and getting a good QB in Collins. They have a new head coach known for being able to craft strong offenses.
How it could get ugly: They've shuffled or have significant question marks at nearly every position on the team. Like the Broncos, chemistry and busts among acquired free agents could cripple their efforts. The main question is: which year was the real Raiders? The Superbowl appearance after the 2002 season, or the 4-12 campaign last year? The answer is "probably somewhere in between".
Strengths: Quarterback position is potentially very deep, they should be able to find one good RB out of the ones they have, and the Charles Woodson is still one of the best DBs in the game.
Weaknesses: Maybe nowhere, maybe everywhere. Everything has been shaken up, and it's hard to imagine all the pieces falling into place quickly or easy enough to have a winning season. Age is slowing them down all over the place, but especially in the WRs that used to be the strength of the team.

San Diego: 6-10
How it could go good: Marty Schottenheimer is a good coach with a strong grounding in his philosophy: play mistake-free good defense and ball control offense to stay close enough to win the close ones when the other team makes a mistake. He's just about got this team ready to do just that.

How it could get ugly: Marty Schottenheimer had nearly the same team in the early 90s with Christian Okoye leading a competitive team with a strong defense and one-dimensional offense. Sure, LaDainian Tomlinson is far more versatile than Okoye, being able to catch the football and dodge tacklers. Unfortunately, Marty doesn't have a defense or O-line as strong as those early Chiefs...and even if he did, those teams never sniffed the AFC Championship. They'll be lucky to win 6 games this year.

Strengths: Running Backs, Defensive Secondary
Weaknesses: No wide receivers to speak of. Patchwork O-line. Quarterback situation is unsettled, although if Rivers is the real deal, it could become a strength.