The Bills have many needs heading into the draft tomorrow. Wide receiver, defensive line, quarterback, tight end and offensive line are all areas they would like to upgrade. Let’s break down their current situation and see if we can gaze into the draft crystal ball to determine where they go.

Wide Receiver Josh Reed had a disappointing rookie year last season, but he did come on at the end of the year. Moulds is solid and provides one of the top ten receivers is the league when healthy. The problem is he needs someone on the other side to loosen up defenses and make the safeties think about someone else. I happen to think that it is never smart to judge receivers by their first year in the league and that Reed will improve next year. Roy Williams and Larry Fitzgerald will be gone when the Bills come up at No. 13, and the Supreme Court made sure Mike Williams would not be there. They may jump on Reggie Williams (Washington) but he is not the speed threat they need, or they may look to Lee Evans (Wisconsin) who is a burner. I don’t see the value for those two at 13, so I am inclined to think they will pass on receiver in the first round, and they will look for the deep threat later.

Defensive Line You wouldn’t know it by looking at their current roster, but the Bills face some serious problems on their defensive line. DE Aaron Schobel had 11-1/2 sacks last year, and will be a free agent following this season. He will not be worth what his agent will demand next year and will likely be gone. DT Pat Williams, who is thirty-one years old will be a free agent as well. Fellow DT’s Sam Adams (30) and Oliver Gibson (32) are getting up in years. Either DE Will Smith (Ohio State) or DE Kenechi Udeze (USC) should be there when the Bills draft, but I again fail to see a value pick here with either player. This draft is painfully short on defensive ends and both players are overvalued because of it. DT Vince Wilfork (Miami) will not make it to the Bills, but if it were somwhow to happen it would be difficult to pass on.

Tight End Kellen Winslow Jr. is the only tight end worthy of a first round pick this year and he will be long gone by the time the Bills pick. Ben Troupe may still be there in the second round.

Quarterback Manning will be gone. Rothlisberger should be gone, but I think there is a slim chance he may slide down to here. Rivers will go to Pittsburgh at No. 11. The thirteen slot is too early to take Losman. So where does that leave the Bills? I think that even if Rothlisberger slips the Bills will pass, as they consider the QB prospects to be Manning, Rivers, Losman and then Rothlisberger. The choice is to trade up and get Rivers or pass on the QB.

At this point I have committed to nothing, so here goes. The Bills trade out of this spot if they can find a taker since there is not sufficient value here for the positions they need. They may trade up to get ahead of Pittsburgh and grab Rivers but the price, both in terms of draft picks and signing money, may be too great. In all likelihood they will trade down and swap first rounders, grab a late second or early third rounder, and take Losman, or any number of defensive tackles, wide receivers, or offensive linemen with their first round pick. It all depends on being able to find a willing partner with whom to trade.

If they get stuck with No. 13 I anticipate a receiver (Evans or Williams), unless somehow Rivers is available.