Looking around the world of Broncos fans I see that some are already asking, “Who will win the AFC West”.

Personally, I think it’s a little early to be making such predictions, though I must humbly (ok, not really very humbly at all) admit that I did correctly predict last years order of finish.

So, I’ll play along. We can always revisit this question after the draft and again right before the regular season begins.

Last year I was sure that KC would win the AFC West, and I was right. This year, though, will be different. Last year they made some obvious improvements during the offseason. This year they’ve sat on their hands, assuming that the addition of Gunther Cunningham as DC will be enough to put them over the top.

They’re wrong. He couldn’t do it for them before and he won’t be able to do it for them this time. The only thing Gunther was a guarantee of during his last stint as KCs DC, was a loss to Denver early in the playoffs.

At the same time KC has resigned a bunch of questionable talent – especially defensively --, lost a very excellent OT in John Tait, while signing ho hum OL Chris Bober, and DT Lionel Dalton. Dalton could be an upgrade for them, but he’s not good enough to change the course of a game all by himself.

On the other hand, Denver has vastly improved its defensive secondary, which has been its most glaring weakness over the past few years. The loss of Portis is a non-issue, because Denver has proven that they will get their 2,000 yards rushing (as a team) no matter who they have in their backfield.

So, where I had KC #1 in the AFC West last year and Denver #2, this year I have to swap them.

That leaves us with Chokeland and San Diego bringing up the rear.

Chokeland has only made two noteworthy signings; DTs Washington and Sapp. I confess, though, that I really like that pairing. The rest of what they’ve done, however, is pretty damned underwhelming, especially the hiring of Norv Turner as their new HC.

That was an utterly moronic move and they’ll spend the next three seasons paying for it – then they’ll say bye-bye to Norv one way or another. As I’ve said before, Turner is a very nice guy and I like him a lot, but the only thing he’s really proven as a head coach is that he shouldn’t be one.

They also have some other problems: They have no real answer at QB; CB Woodson is too effin fragile; As is their “answer” at RB, Justin Fargas – though I really enjoy watching Fargas play and he was clearly their best back when he did get on the field last year.

Finally we look at the Chargers, and while I’ve always been a believer in Marty, after last season I found myself having serious doubts about him and the current effectiveness of his philosophy.

That changed as I watched him make some good early offseason moves. He made some hard choices and got rid of some headaches, some under-performers and some aging vets. He also landed WR Kevin Dyson, who maybe not be as gifted as David Boston, but isn’t a headcase like Boston, either. That’s the good news.

The bad news is that most of the guys who replaced the people he cut don’t seem like obvious upgrades. Aside from the Dyson signing there’s a lot of yawning involved with reading over the list of SDs FA pick ups.

The one thing SD has over Chokeland is coaching, and I believe it will be enough of a positive that SD should finish ahead of the Faiders.

So, my early offseason picks in the AFC West go like this.

Denver

KC

SD

Chokeland.

We’ll see how things change after the draft and as the offseason progresses.

Add your own predictions in the comments section.