Sweet 16 Prediction

The NCAA Tournament resumes tonight with four regional semifinals in East Rutherford and Phoenix. Here are my picks.

#2 Connecticut vs. #6 Vanderbilt – West Region, 7:10 p.m.

When the brackets came out last Sunday Vanderbilt immediately became one of the vogue picks to fall victim to an early upset. The Commodores were a mediocre team that only made the NCAA Tournament because of their upset over a Mississippi State team in the SEC Tournament that was overrated to begin with, was the argument. Instead, Vandy beat Western Michigan and never let N.C. State put them away in the 2nd round.
(While we’re on the subject of that game, can somebody explain something to me? Why was that NOT an intentional foul against Marcus Melvin, as everybody in the print and TV media has been saying all week.
This is the definition of an intentional foul from the NCAA College Basketball rulebook:

Intentional foul- One that the official judges to be designed, or is not a legitimate attempt to directly play the ball or a player; not based on severity of the act. If a player uses excessive force or causes excessive contact while playing the ball, the foul also should be ruled intentional.

The rule is, you have to make a legitimate play for the ball. Of course most fouls are essentially intentional, but you have to at least act like you are trying to make a play on the ball. This is why in late-game situations you don’t see teams fouling miserable free-throw shooters while a ball is being inbounded. There is too much chance of having an intentional foul called if you are mugging somebody without the ball.
With regard to the State-Vandy game, Marcus Melvin trailed badly on a play, made a tomahawk chop with his right arm on the shoulder of Vanderbilt’s Corey Smith. Melvin’s hand didn’t get close to the ball, nor did it make an attempt to. Some say that Melvin tripped, but even so, in the interpretation of the rules, the referee could have decided that Melvin used excessive force.
But I digress. Vanderbilt’s run will end tonight. Matt Freiji has had a spectacular two games in the NCAA Tournament, but he hasn’t seen a frontcourt like Uconn has with Emeka Okafor and Josh Boone.
Pick: Connecticut

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #3 Pittsburgh – East Region, 7:27 p.m.

I picked Oklahoma State to win it all, and I’m not going to back down from that now. This should be an interesting game, matching up Pittsburgh’s bruising, but effective, Big East style of basketball against Eddie Sutton’s athletic Oklahoma State team.
Pitt snuck into the Sweet 16 with two ugly wins against Central Florida and Wisconsin. In the first game, the Panthers only shot 29% from the field.
Oklahoma State has looked impressive in their last three halves of basketball. In the first half of their tournament, the Cowboys looked sluggish against an Eastern Washington team that they were tied with at halftime. Since then OSU has looked unstoppable.
In this game, Pitt’s scoring droughts will be too much for them to overcome. Tony Allen will be the difference.
Pick: Oklahoma State

#5 Syracuse vs. #8 Alabama – West Region, appx. 9:40 p.m.

I think Syracuse’s 2-3 zone will stymie Alabama’s offense. I think Hakim Warrick is the best player on the floor and will single-handedly propel the Orangemen to victory. I think Gerry McNamara didn’t have a great game against Maryland and will continue to struggle tonight. I think Alabama needed a near buzzer beater to beat Southern Illinois and didn’t play all that well (4-19 from beyond the arc) against Stanford.
So why am I picking them to win?
Pick: Alabama

#1 St. Joseph’s vs. #5 Wake Forest – East Region, appx. 9:57 p.m.

Most analysts agree that this game will come down to a backcourt battle between St. Joe’s Jameer Nelson and Delonte West and Wake Forest’s Chris Paul and Justin Gray. The popular thinking is that the experience of Nelson and West (senior and junior, respectively) will win out over Paul and Gray (freshman and sophomore).
My question is… what experience?
St. Joe’s hasn’t won a game in the NCAA Tournament since 2001, Nelson’s freshman year. That year they snuck by Georgia Tech in the 1st round 8-9 game and then fell to Stanford in the 2nd round. Since then the Hawks missed the Tournament in 2002 and were upset by Auburn in the 1st round last year. Nelson and West have a combined total of seven NCAA Tournament games experience, compared with the six of Paul and Gray. Nelson might have seniority over Paul and Gray, but his tournament experience is overrated. Still, I’ll give the backcourt edge to Nelson and West because of Paul’s recent penchant for turnovers, but I don’t think it will matter.
While everybody is focusing on the scintillating backcourts of both schools, nobody is really paying attention to St. Joe’s Achilles heel – a lack of an inside game. St. Joe’s gets out-rebounded by most of their opponents and has no solid big man in the middle that can contend with Eric Williams and Jamaal Levy.
If Wake can get establish Williams in the low post early in the game, it will force St. Joe’s to play more in the middle, thus freeing up Wake’s 3-point shooters (Taron Downey and Vytas Danelius, in addition to Paul and Gray).
The key to this game won’t be Nelson or Paul, it will be fouls. If Eric Williams can stay out of foul trouble, Wake should be able to beat St. Joe’s in the middle. If Williams gets a few early fouls, then the burden shifts to Kyle Visser to beat the Hawks inside.
Pick: Wake Forest