The Portis for Bailey deal looks as close to a sure thing as one can get when speaking of NFL trades before the fact.

Portis got his big pay day (and why would Washington make this trade if they didn’t intend to pay him what he’s worth), Bailey will get his, Denver will fill their most desperate need and Washington will greatly increase the potency of what should be a very good offense.

Smiles all around.

But who’s getting the better deal, here?

While neither team will have anything to complain about, in the short term Washington probably sees stronger upside.

In 2003 Washington had the 25th ranked defense, and even with Bailey were only middle of the pack (13th) in passing defense.

What they lose along with Bailey’s ability they gain in the quality of Gibbs as the once and new head coach (or pretty damn close). So maybe they fall to 15th next year . . . or maybe the rise to 10th. Either way, the loss of Bailey is small potatoes to their overall performance.

Sure, you can say that they sucked on offense, too (23rd over all), but their running game was ranked 22nd AND they had an inept coach. The Portis trade gives them the two in a one two combination as far as improving their offense. He’s going to be a very big deal for them and, unlike anyone they might sign out of the draft, Portis is a sure thing, possibly the best in the league as his position.

On the other hand, even with shoddy pass coverage Denver’s D finished the year ranked number 4 overall with the passing D ranked number five.

Bailey will simply put Denver’s D over the edge. Portis will lift Washington’s offense dramatically (Washington's top two backs in '03 COMBINED for a teensy 1011 yards).

Over the long term it’s Denver that has the advantage, though.

Gibbs doesn’t care much for using fullbacks, so Portis will have maybe three really good years (hovering around the 1,500 yard mark) and then have a steep fall off. Sure, he’s more talented than Eddie George (Jeff Fisher hated fullbacks, too), but he’s not nearly as nimble as Barry Sanders (who played without a fullback for all but one year, if I remember correctly). Since he can’t avoid taking a pounding like Barry did, he’ll fall victim to the ravages of on field violence like Eddie has.

Bailey, however, is playing at a (comparatively) low violence position. A RB gets hammered almost every time he touches the ball. A CB . . . not so much.

So while Portis will be washed up in five years, Bailey will just be at the waning years of his prime.

As an aside, if Portis stayed with Denver he’d very likely see a 2,000 yard season sometime in the next three years, as well as a handful of 1,600 to 1,800 yard years over his career. So statistically, Portis will be getting screwed, while Denver’s already respectable D means that Bailey will statistically benefit.

Portis is giving up a chance at the Hall of Fame for a fat wad of cash. I’m not saying he’s wrong, a RB’s career can end in an instant and who’s to say he wouldn’t have a tragic knee injury next year at camp. But by going for his payday now – as opposed to in a year or two years when Denver is in better position to reward him – , Portis is limiting his potential for on field success over time.