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NCAA Tournament Predictions

Today at high noon the Madness begins. It will continue throughout the month and end on April 5th when one of the 64 teams in the field cuts down the nets in San Antonio. Last year Syracuse marched through the NCAA Tournament on the back of freshman Carmelo Anthony, surprising fans and pundits alike. Will there be another Syracuse this year? Or will one of the #1 seeds power their way through the brackets. The best part about the Tournament is that nobody knows for sure. All it takes is a six-game winning streak and any team from Kentucky to BYU could earn the title of 2004 NCAA Basketball Champion.
Here are my picks for each of the 63 games. I must warn you that a) I haven’t done well in a pool since Marcus Camby was at UMass and b) I lost $80 in forty-five minutes in the sports book at Caesar’s during last years conference tournaments. Jimmy the Greek, I am not. So take these picks with a grain of salt. Preferably a grain of salt from some potato chips that you’re washing down with some beer while kicking back on your couch and enjoying the splendor that is March Madness.

Midwest Region

1st Round

#1 Kentucky vs. #16 Florida A&M
If these two schools faced off in a Battle of the Bands, Florida A&M would be the one favored by 35 points. But, sorry Rattlers fans, they’ll be playing basketball.
Pick: Kentucky

#8 Washington vs. #9 UABI’m picking Washington, but I feel like this could be one of those games where I’ll be watching the ticker and each time this score passes UAB will be up a larger margin and I’ll think to myself, “I’m sure glad I picked UAB.” I’ll go through the whole game thinking I picked them, then I’ll go to my brackets afterwards to circle my great pick only to see that I’ve chosen Washington. At this point I’ll let the expletives fly and wonder why the hell I didn’t pick UAB. I KNEW they were going to win.
Pick: Washington

#5 Providence vs. #12 Pacific
I’d tell you I was picking Pacific, but then I’d be lying.
Pick: Providence

#4 Kansas vs. #13 Illinois-Chicago
UIC has a great backcourt in Cedrick Banks and Martell Bailey. But I don’t think the two childhood friends have enough to upset the Jayhawks.
Pick: Kansas

#6 Boston College vs. #11 Utah
Boston gave us Ted Williams. Utah gave us Roseanne.
Pick: Boston College

#3 Georgia Tech vs. #14 Northern Iowa
Before the game Northern Iowa coach Greg McDermott will have NIU-alum Kurt Warner give the Panthers a pep-talk. NIU will start off the game looking like UCLA circa 1971 as the announcers talk about how the team is destined for the Final Four. They will take a lead of 18 into the locker room. In the second half they’ll fall apart and lose their starting job to Marc Bulger.
Pick: Georgia Tech

#7 Michigan State vs. #10 Nevada
Michigan State played in this same game last year and went all the way to the Elite Eight. Not this year.
Pick: Nevada

#2 Gonzaga vs. #15 Valparaiso
OK, I’ll be honest. I only picked Nevada because I realized I had a chalk bracket through the 1st round in this region. I think Michigan State will probably win, but I’m not sold on their team. But I’ll stick with the Wolf Pack.
Pick: Gonzaga

2nd Round

#1 Kentucky vs. #8 Washington
Tubby Smith being nicknamed Tubby is like Carson Kressley being nicknamed Butch.
Pick: Kentucky

#4 Kansas vs. #5 Providence
I’ve taken some heat from some family members for knocking on the Jayhawks this week. Maybe this will appease them. Although I think Providence would win this game if it weren’t being played in Kansas City. Well, guess I burned THAT bridge again.
Pick: Kansas

#6 Boston College vs. #3 Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is one of those teams that I can’t figure out. Just when I start to believe in them, they play a miserable game like they did against Duke. Jarrett Jack could have a coming out party during this tournament like Chris Wilcox did with Maryland in 2002. He’s that good. And teams from the Big East (Uconn excluded) always choke in the tournament.
Pick: Georgia Tech

#2 Gonzaga vs. #10 Nevada
I haven’t seen the Zags play as much as I would have liked this season, but when I did catch their games I saw Cory Violette dominating the middle like he was Mike Singletary.
Pick: Gonzaga

Sweet 16

#1 Kentucky vs. #4 Kansas
Mark it down: Kentucky will be in this tournament longer than Ashley Judd’s last movie was in theaters.
Pick: Kentucky

#2 Gonzaga vs. #3 Georgia Tech
The media is fascinating. They hype up things until they make the cover of a national magazine, then they bring them back down again with harsh criticism, only to try to prop them back up afterwards with kind words. The press did it to Howard Dean and they are doing it to Gonzaga. One week ago everybody was laughing at the thought of the Zags getting a #1 seed. Now everybody is back on the bandwagon and picking Gonzaga to win the whole thing. I want to agree, but the last time the Bulldogs were involved in a close game was before Christmas in a seven-point loss to Stanford. I’m thinking that they’ll panic if the game is close late in the 2nd half and Tech will pull out the victory.
Pick: Georgia Tech

Regional Final

#1 Kentucky vs. #3 Georgia Tech
Paul Hewitt got robbed in the ACC Coach of the Year vote. Herb Sendek won because his teams constantly don’t live up to their high expectations and this year they finally did. Nobody expected the Yellow Jackets to do anything this season (they were voted 7th in the ACC Preseason Poll) and they responded with a spectacular year and a #3 seed. If Luke Schenscher has a monster game in the middle and Jack and B.J. Elder are hitting from the perimeter, the Jackets could steal this game from Kentucky. But I don’t think they will.
Final Four Team: Kentucky

East Region

1st Round

#1 St. Joseph’s vs. #16 Liberty
All season long I’ve been predicting that St. Joe’s will lose in the 1st round. I also said that Maryland was losing the in quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament and The Passion of the Christ would tank at the box-office.
Pick: St. Joseph’s

#8 Texas Tech vs. #9 Charlotte
I was in an NFL pool this season. In the first week of the season I picked the Minnesota Vikings to lose at Green Bay. They won. The next week I picked the Vikes to get beat by the Bears. Didn’t happen. For the next four weeks I continued picking against Minnesota because I had no faith in the team. Of course, they started the season 6-0. Finally, in week seven I decided to admit that I was wrong about Daunte and Co. and started to pick them to win, whereupon they dropped four straight games.
I always pick Bobby Knight teams to do well in the tournament. They never do. Apparently forgetting my 0-10 start with the Vikings, I will finally pick against the General.
Pick: Charlotte

#5 Florida vs. #12 Manhattan
Every year there is a team that becomes the vogue upset pick. Last year it was Wisconsin-Milwaukee, before that Penn, Indiana State and Creighton appeared on everybody’s upset list. Manhattan is that team this year. Luis Flores is a mid-major version of Juan Dixon, but without the supporting cast.
Pick: Florida

#4 Wake Forest vs. #13 Virginia Commonwealth
If Wake loses to a team coached by Jeff Capel then Skip Prosser should be fired and replaced with Dante Calabria.
Pick: Wake Forest

#6 Wisconsin vs. #11 Richmond
The Spiders beat Kansas in Lawrence earlier this year, so logic would say that they are capable of beating Wisconsin in Milwaukee. And they can. But they won’t. Or will they?
Pick: Wisconsin

#3 Pittsburgh vs. #14 Central Florida
You know, it wouldn’t sound as good if Central Florida were instead located in, say, Central New Jersey.
Pick: Pittsburgh

#7 Memphis vs. #10 South Carolina
Memphis coach John Calipari once made it to the Final Four. South Carolina coach Dave Odom once visited Euro Disney.
Pick: Memphis

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #15 Eastern Washington
You know, it wouldn’t sound as good if Eastern Washington were instead located in, say, Eastern New Jersey.
Pick: Oklahoma State

2nd Round

#1 St. Joseph’s vs. #9 Charlotte
Phil Martelli looks like Rick Majerus. Bobby Lutz looks like an out of work porn star.
Pick: Charlotte

#4 Wake Forest vs. #5 Florida
Steve Spurrier came to the Redskins from the University of Florida. I hardly think one university could cause me that much pain.
Pick: Wake Forest

#3 Pittsburgh vs. #6 Wisconsin
Wisconsin usually plays well in the NCAA Tournament. Pittsburgh usually plays well in the AFC North. Usually.
Pick: Wisconsin

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #7 Memphis
Back in 1996 I went to the 1st round games in Baltimore. We had seats behind the basket, which gave me a perfect view of the Oklahoma State cheerleaders. Picture a younger version of the Dallas Cowboy cheerleaders mixed with Britney Spears circa 2002. I don’t think I watched a single minute of the game. That year, my new favorite team made it to the Final Four. Coincidence? Yeah, probably.
Pick: Oklahoma State

Sweet 16

#4 Wake Forest vs. #9 Charlotte
This epic matchup will be billed the “Battle of I-85”. It will be played in a converted swamp in New Jersey. Well, I guess it could be held in worse places. Like Raleigh-Durham.
Pick: Wake Forest

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #6 Wisconsin
Did I tell you about those Oklahoma State cheerleaders?
Pick: Oklahoma State

Regional Final

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #4 Wake Forest
Wake likes to play up-tempo and Eddie Sutton’s OSU team will try to slow them down. The last time a team did this to Wake, Texas blew them out of the gym.
Final Four Team: Oklahoma State

South Region

#1 Duke vs. #16 Alabama State
If Alabama State’s Malcolm Campbell can get hot and Shelden Williams gets in foul trouble early, then the Hornets could possibly – aww, who am I kidding.
Pick: Duke

#8 Seton Hall vs. #9 Arizona
(See prediction for Washington-UAB matchup.)
Pick: Arizona

#5 Illinois vs. #12 Murray State
It’s never a good sign when a team’s leading scorer is charged with pot possession three days before their 1st round game. But, either way, look for the Blazers to draft that guy in the 2nd round.
Pick: Illinois

#4 Cincinnati vs. #13 East Tennessee State
In related news, Bob Huggins expressed disbelief that it wasn’t one of his players.
Pick: Cincinnati

#6 North Carolina vs. #11 Air Force
Maybe a Matt Doherty coached team would be flummoxed by the Princeton-style offense, but not a Roy Williams team.
Pick: North Carolina

#3 Texas vs. #14 Princeton
Maybe a Mack Brown coached team would be flummoxed by the Princeton-style offense, but not a Rick Barnes team. Wait, maybe a Rick Barnes team will be. Naw, not even Ricky B. could screw this one up.
Pick: Texas

#7 Xavier vs. #10 Louisville
The single hardest 1st round game to predict. I guarantee I’ll pick wrong.
Pick: Xavier

#2 Mississippi State vs. #15 Monmouth
Oh, who cares.
Pick: Mississippi State

2nd Round

#1 Duke vs. #9 Arizona
Christian Laettner and Gilbert Arenas will be watching this game in the Wizards locker room. They’ll make a bet that says whoever’s alma mater loses, that person will have to carry the other’s bag for two weeks. When Duke wins, Laettner will hand Arenas his bag. Arenas will then proceed to bitch-slap Laettner because, seriously, what’s Christian Laettner gonna do about it?
Pick: Duke

#4 Cincinnati vs. #5 Illinois
Picking a Bob Huggins team in March is like picking a Libertarian candidate in November.
Pick: Illinois

#3 Texas vs. #6 North Carolina
Of late, Texas has been scoring less than A.C. Green. And everybody has been telling me that I’m crazy if I pick Texas in this game. Hmmmm… Crazy like a FOX!
Pick: Texas

#2 Mississippi State vs. #7 Xavier
If this matchup were guaranteed of happening, I’d pick Xavier. But since the Muskateers could easily lose to Louisville in the 1st round, I’ll play it safe and pick Mississippi State.
Pick: Mississippi State

Sweet 16

#1 Duke vs. #5 Illinois
#1 seeds don’t often lose in the Sweet 16. But the last two times it happened, it was the Dukies who were on the losing end. In Jason Williams freshman year he was frigid from the field and Duke got knocked off by Florida, who was en route to the Finals. In Jason Williams junior year he missed a game-tying free throw with almost no time on the clock and Duke got beat by Indiana, who was en route to the Finals. I wish I could say that history was going to repeat itself, but the only place Illinois is en route to is Terminal B at Hartsfield International.
Pick: Duke

#2 Mississippi State vs. #3 Texas
I don’t know what’s more surprising. The fact that Texas put up 122 points in a single game earlier this year or that Mississippi only has five different letters in it.
Pick: Texas

Regional Final

#1 Duke vs. #3 Texas
On Sunday, when North Carolina beats Texas, I’m going to feel pretty miserable when I’m crossing off one of my Final Four teams. But I just don’t think that Duke can match the Longhorns size. And with J.J. Redick shooting about as well as Chris Dudley, Duke doesn’t have that “punch in the stomach” guy who hits the three to crush an opponents momentum.
Final Four team: Texas

West Region

1st Round

#1 Stanford vs. #16 Texas San-Antonio
You know, if UTSA could rattle off four straight wins, they’d have an essential home game for the Final Four. And if Keanu Reeves had talent, he’d be Al Pacino.
Pick: Stanford

#8 Alabama vs. #9 Southern Illinois
The Salukis killed me last year when I had them beating Missouri and Marquette (who went on to the Final Four). Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Dammit.
Pick: Southern Illinois

#5 Syracuse vs. #12 BYU
By now you’re probably wondering why I haven’t picked that many 1st round upsets. Well, it’s because I’m changing my strategy this year. This year, I don’t plan on sucking as bad as I usually do in my pools. I’ve been bitten before in picking upsets that nobody else did because everybody got those free points while I was left to wonder… why did I think Winthrop had the poise of a Sweet 16 team.
Pick: Syracuse

#4 Maryland vs. #13 Texas El-Paso
The Terps could easily lose this game today. The tip is at 10:40 local time, the players are emotionally exhausted from their ACC Tourney victory this weekend and despite what Gary Williams will tell them in the locker room before the game, the players probably think they’ll have an easy time with the Miners. I’m picking Maryland, but only because I don’t want to hear complaints from all my fellow Maryland fans.
Pick: Maryland

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #11 Western Michigan
You didn’t think I was going to go through the whole bracket without one real upset, did you?
Pick: Western Michigan

#3 N.C. State vs. #14 Louisiana-Lafayette
State is one of those teams that could lose in the 1st round or go the Finals. Let’s have them going somewhere in between.
Pick: N.C. State

#7 DePaul vs. #10 Dayton
Blue Demons sounds too much like Blue Devils for my taste.
Pick: Dayton

#2 Connecticut vs. #15 Vermont
Vermont forward Taylor Coppenrath scored 43 points in the Catamounts win in the America East Championship game. If Emeka Okafor’s back starts giving him trouble, this could be one of those historic #15 over #2 upsets. Emphasis on “could”.
Pick: Connecticut

2nd Round

#1 Stanford vs. #9 Southern Illinois
Directional teams rarely taste the delights of the Sweet 16.
Pick: Stanford

#4 Maryland vs. #5 Syracuse
Even though Syracuse’s zone will force Travis Garrison to make more horrible passes than usual, I still think that John Gilchrist isn’t done showing how good he really is just yet.
Pick: Maryland

#3 N.C. State vs. #11 Western Michigan
Another directional team, another loss.
Pick: N.C. State

#2 Connecticut vs. #10 Dayton
Nope. Not gonna happen.
Pick: Connecticut

Sweet 16

#1 Stanford vs. #4 Maryland
A rematch of the 2001 West Regional Final in which Lonny Baxter went nuts on the Cardinal and single-handedly took the Terps to their first Final Four. Baxter is now warming the bench in Washington, which is akin to being an understudy in a Duluth Theater Company.
Pick: Stanford

#2 Connecticut vs. #3 N.C. State
Julius Hodge is good. Emeka Okafor is better.
Pick: Connecticut

Regional Final

#1 Stanford vs. #2 Connecticut
Stanford's mascot is a tree.
Final Four team: Connecticut

Final Four

#1 Kentucky vs. #2 Oklahoma State
This is the matchup CBS execs are begging for. Here’s hoping they show the game on one-half of the screen and on the other half switch off between Ashley Judd and the OSU cheerleaders.
Pick: Oklahoma State

#2 Connecticut vs. #3 Texas
Do I really have Texas in the Final Four? The same Texas team that scored 48 and 49 points in their last two losses (one of which was to Kansas State)? The same Texas team that is coached by Rick Barnes? I owe all of you a grain of salt.
Pick: Connecticut

National Championship

Kenucky vs. Oklahoma State
It’s only fitting that the Cowboys will ride high in San Antonio.
Pick: Oklahoma State

Enjoy the tournament.

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