Advice on how to fill out your NCAA brackets is kind of like getting tips on how to win in the stock market. Everybody thinks they know what they’re talking about, but nobody really does. Everybody’s an expert. In reality, to be successful in your pool, you need to combine a little analysis with a lot of luck.
You can go on one of the three major sports sites on the internet (ESPN, SI and Sportsline) and you’ll be deluged with information ranging from the size of Northern Iowa’s center to the three-point percentage of Monmouth’s backcourt.
You’ll read about how there is no way a #2 seed will lose in the 1st round this year, or how Stanford is a lock for the Finals. One analyst will guarantee that Kentucky will come out of the Midwest (I am refusing to call the regions by their location names) and another will be just as sure that Gonzaga will come out of that region. The point is, nobody really knows. A #2 seed could easily lose, it’s happened four times before. And there is no such thing as a lock for the Final Four as Kentucky and Arizona proved last year.
Did anybody think that Coppin State would beat South Carolina a few years back? How many people really predicted that Syracuse would cut the nets down last year? I’m sure there is a lot of people that claim they did, but few that are actually telling the truth.
The point is, if being knowledgeable about college basketball translated into NCAA pool success, then Digger Phelps and Andy Katz would predict all 63 of the games correctly. Instead, Digger was near the bottom of the ESPN analyst bracket challenge last year and Katz wasn’t that much further ahead.
It’s a cliché, but in so many office pools the secretary who has never watched college basketball and thinks that Gonzaga is the new Viagra competitor often wins. Why? Because there is no right way to make the picks. I’ve watched a lot of college basketball this season, probably more than 90% of the people I will be competing against in various pools. Yet, I’ll probably finish up somewhere in the middle of the pack. Why? Because the only thing predictable about the NCAA Tournament is its unpredictability.
With that word of warning, I now will offer some tips on how to have a great looking bracket on Thursday morning turn into a mediocre bracket by Thursday night.

- Be wary of picking too many big upsets. Me giving out this advice is like getting Rick James to be the keynote speaker at a Just Say No! rally, but hopefully I will learn from my past mistakes. In years past I always picked a lot of upsets. Sometimes this works. I remember the glorious run of the Kent State Golden Flashes to the Elite Eight in 2002 and basking in the praises of my peers for such a clairvoyant pick. But for every Kent State on my resume, there are about 40 Michigan States, a #10 seed I thought would make a deep run in that same 2002 tourney, but ended up being out of the tournament at 2:30 on the first Thursday.
You’re better off having a few upsets early (#12 over #5 is always good) or maybe picking a sleeper team that falls in the #6 to #9 range to make it to the Sweet 16, but nothing more than that. This leads to the next tip…

- In the later rounds, ignore seedings. St. Joseph’s is a good team, no matter what Billy Packer says. But in a game against Oklahoma State, Wake Forest or Pittsburgh on a neutral floor, the Hawks would probably be the underdog. It’s not an upset if you predict a #3 seed over a #2 seed, since there is so little difference between them. Pittsburgh spent most of the season ranked higher than Oklahoma State, but is the #3 in the East, compared to Ok. State’s #2. If Pitt wins, it would be considered an upset. But in reality, it will be one good team beating another good team. Don’t be scared of picking numerical upsets.

- Pick three out of the four #1 seeds to make it to at least the Elite Eight. Last year all four #1 seeds made it that far, compared to three in 2002, four in 2001, one in 2000, three in 1999 and three in 1998. From there, use your best judgment.

- Buck conventional wisdom. Let’s tie this tip into the last one. Everybody seems to think that St. Joe’s won’t advance past the second or third round. (I must say that I am included in this group). But think of the advantages if you picked St. Joe’s to go the Final Four. You’ll be one of the only poolers to do so and can distance yourself from the group.

- Conventional wisdom is a good thing. The prohibitive favorites for the 2000, 2001 and 2002 tournaments were Michigan State, Duke and Maryland. I don’t need to tell you who won those three tournaments. Last year, most analysts thought that Kentucky and Arizona would meet in the Final. Neither ended up making it to the Final Four, but Kentucky was battling injuries and Arizona is coached by Lute Olsen, the Don Nelson of the NCAA. (Yes, I know Arizona won the title in 1997. I would hope so with Bibby and Miles Simon on their team. But that doesn’t erase the fact that Olsen’s teams have been perennial chokers in the Tournament. He might have redeemed himself with that Championship, but I haven’t forgotten about the losses to Santa Clara, Wisconsin and Oklahoma).
Anyway, there’s a reason that Kentucky and Duke are #1 seeds. Because they’re good teams.

- Put at least one sleeper into the Final Four. Syracuse and Marquette (both #3 seeds) in 2003, Indiana (#5) in 2002, Maryland (#3) in 2001 and North Carolina and Wisconsin (both #8 seeds) in 2000 are recent examples. This year, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, Louisville and Texas are all solid teams that could put together a good run.

- Don’t read anything into the conference tournament losses. The only thing conference tournaments are good for is determining who is hot. Maryland, for example, is one of those teams. They were able to knock off the top 3 seeded teams in the ACC Tournament because they’re playing their basketball of the year. On the flip side, North Carolina, Mississippi State, Texas and Providence all suffered tough losses in their respective conference tournaments but won’t be any worse for the wear come Thursday.

- Ignore the polls and the RPI. If you want to look at numbers, check out a team’s non-conference RPI.

- Under no circumstance should you ever listen to Dick Vitale. In fact, you should probably look at Vitale’s bracket and pick the exact opposite of what he does. (Note: Shockingly, Vitale picked Duke to make it to the final game. Shockingly, in an unsarcastic way, he picked them to lose.)

- Beware of hyphenated schools. Sure, Illinois-Chicago might look great (“well, they are a crossbreed of a lovely state with a big city, ergo, they MUST be good!”), but think about all the hyphenated celebrities you loathe. These include Rebecca Romijn-Stamos (I’m not even married to John Stamos like she is, yet I still have considered taking Uncle Jesse’s last name. Come to think of it, how great would it be if her name was Rebecca Romijn-Katsapalous) and Jean-Jacques Rousseau (let’s just say that my Philosophy grade sophomore year would have benefited if Mr. Anti-Private Property had kept his thoughts to himself).

- When in doubt, pick the team you like less. Here’s why: Let’s say I pick Duke to go the Final Four. I don’t like Duke; some might say that I hate Duke. I’d be one of those people. But I digress. I don’t like Duke, but if I’m having a hard time figuring out whether to put Duke or Mississippi State in the Final Four, I’ll pick Duke. That way, if those stuck-up preppies win, I can take consolation in the fact that it might end up winning me money.
This works also for teams you like. I want Wake Forest and Maryland to win. Sure, it’d be sweet if they both made Final Four runs and I predicted they’d be there. But if I’m not sure, I’ll pick, say, Oklahoma State and Connecticut instead. Then I’ll be so happy if the Deacs and Terps make the Final Four it won’t even matter that my brackets are screwed up. But if either team loses early, then not only are my teams done, but so is my bracket. Let’s call this the “Cut Your Losses” method.

- Don’t pick more than one school without a state in its name to be in the Final Four. This means, if you have Stanford, Wake Forest, Gonzaga and Duke coming out of their respective regions, you better get back to work. Most years the Final Four is dominated by schools with states in their name like Michigan State, Texas, Kentucky and North Carolina. In fact, Duke, Marquette, Syracuse and Stanford are the only non-state named schools to make the Final Four since 1992. How’s THAT for a statistic.

- Don’t expect Texas Tech to be playing on the second weekend. Bobby Knight coached teams have not advanced past the 2nd round since his Indiana teams were wearing those short-shorts.

- Try not to get too cute with your picks. Yeah, its fun to pick Princeton over Texas because you remember the Tigers upsetting UCLA a few years back and it might be nice to put Richmond in the Sweet 16 because your sister’s best friend’s cousin went there, but try to ignore those thoughts. Picking upsets is overrated. Try this method – fill in the teams you think will be in the Sweet 16. Then work backwards and if you see an upset possibility, pick it. For instance, if you think Wake Forest is going to win their first two games, regardless of who they play, pick Wake and then consider taking Manhattan over Florida. If you think Wake would beat Florida anyway, it couldn’t hurt to pick the Jaspers who have a legitimate chance to pull the upset. This is especially key in pools that reward upsets. Which leads me to the next tip…

- Take a look at how your pool is being scored. Everybody has a different method for scoring. Some pools emphasize the Final Four so much that 1st round games are left relatively meaningless. In these pools, try to have as much of a chalk bracket as you can. In other pools, the points aren’t staggered nearly as much between the 1st Round and Final Four, so every game counts. In these, pick a few upsets and take a risk by advancing one of your sleeper teams to the Sweet 16. Other pools greatly emphasize upsets. When filling out brackets for this kind of pool, work backwards from the Sweet 16 like I suggested above.

- Pick a #1 seed to win the whole thing. In nine of the last 12 years, a number one seed has hoisted the Championship trophy on the first Monday in April. Syracuse won last year as a #3 seed, but before that Connecticut, Michigan State, Duke and Maryland made it four straight years that a #1 seed went all the way. And if you don’t pick a #1 seed to win it, at least have one #1 in the final game.

- Along with the “Cut Your Losses” method, here are some other ways to pick the outcome of that pesky game you can’t figure out:
1) Look at the coaches. Example: Cincinnati vs. Duke. Bob Huggins vs. Mike Krzyzewski. I think we’re done here.
2) The tougher the mascot, the tougher the team. This is also known as the “Scott Van Pelt Theory”. The SportsCenter anchor, and Maryland alum, says when in doubt, figure out which mascot would win in a no-holds barred brawl. Example: Xavier Musketeers vs. Seton Hall Pirates. This is tougher than picking between a Panther and a Badger (Pitt/Wisconsin), but I think I would give the slight edge to Seton Hall. After all, Johnny Depp, Captain Hook and Willie Stargell could definitely beat up Bryan Adams, Rod Stewart and Sting.
3) Ask yourself… What Would Uncle Jesse Do?. Two Uncle Jesse references in one entry. Chris, you’ve outdone yourself again.
4) Look for signs. If you channel surf past Meet the Press and see James Carville on, you know that the University of Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun’ Cajun’s are the pick over NC State. Maybe you open Sports Illustrated and read a story about the biggest NBA busts,. If that’s the case, then Duke becomes your choice. Or lets say you go to the financial aid office at your school to talk about your tuition. Then you can be confident that the school named after St. Joseph, the patron saint of bursars, will take you to the promised land. (St. Joseph, by the way, is also the patron Saint of confectioners, people who fight Communism and wheelwrights. I’m not joking.)

- Don’t let your picks take away from your enjoyment of the crazy upsets. If Texas-San Antonio is up late on Stanford, and you have the Cardinal in the Final Four, you still have to root for UT-SA even if it destroys your bracket. There’s nothing worse than not enjoying the celebration after a buzzer beater because you’re checking to see what it does to your brackets.

- Come up with a clever team name for your entry. Anything that involves your last name, mascot of the college you attended, using a Z instead of an S (i.e. Boyz) or the words “fo shizzle” will not be tolerated.

- Most importantly, ignore everything you’ve just read.

Good luck.