Buffalo @ New England => New England*
Seattle @ San Francisco => Seattle*
Philly @ Washington => Philadelphia
Chicago @ Kansas City => Kansas City
Cleveland @ Cincinnati => Cincinnati
Dallas @ New Orleans => Dallas
Indianapolis @ Houston => Indianapolis
Jacksonville @ Atlanta => Jacksonville
NY Jets @ Miami => Miami
St Louis @ Detroit => Detroit
Tampa Bay @ Tennessee => Tampa Bay*
Carolina @ NY Giants => Carolina
Minnesota @ Arizona => Minnesota
Denver @ Green Bay => Green Bay*
Oakland @ San Diego => Oakland
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore => Baltimore

*denotes games between teams of similar ability. Homefield advantage and "something to play for" (i.e., making the playoffs or salvaging a season by defeating a rival) can also even some gaps.
Specifically:
-New England hasn't blown out anyone, and Buffalo is better than their record might indicate. They would salvage their season by defeating the Patriots, and many players have personal grudges. But New England is undefeated at home.
-Green Bay is tough to beat at home and is playing for a playoff berth. Denver will be without Clinton Portis, has nothing to really play for, and will probably rest their dinged up players. On the other hand, Denver is playing quite well and is nearly unstoppable on offense, which protects the defense well enough to make them Top-10 in both categories...
-Tampa Bay is also far better than their record would indicate. Tennessee does have more to play for, trying to win their division to get a home playoff game...but McNair is dinged up, and their running game is non-existent.
-Seattle is a good team, and better than San Francisco. But they are lousy on the road, and San Francisco is good at home. But Seattle needs a win to earn a playoff berth...

I was 10-6 last week, but forgot to post my picks here; you'll just have to believe me. I was 11-5 the week before, which you can check by looking back in my archives. That makes me 21-11 to this point; we'll see how I do this coming weekend.