Denver has a huge home-field advantage (as do Denver teams in every sport) and they've beaten Kansas City the last two years at home. AFC West interdivision games always seem to be close no matter how good the teams are otherwise. Kansas City is the better team, but Denver is hungrier -- the Chiefs are playing for a first-round bye, but the Broncos are trying to get into the playoffs altogether.

This is from the conclusion paragraph of the Football Oustiders website, home of some of the best analysis of NFL teams out there.

Inexplicably, Aaron still picks KC to win. By the numbers, it really is up in the air, but I have to pick against KC this week, simply because the confluence of all factors is not in the Chiefs' favor: only two teams in the AFC West in the last 25 years have won every AFC West contest, and this is at Denver against a healthy Jake Plummer and a hungry Denver Broncos team that sounds like they are making this game their Superbowl.

Interesting Point:
According to Football Outsiders, Kansas City is in pretty good shape for the playoffs and eventually the Superbowl, being the most effecient overal team in the NFL for the season, nearly 8 percentage points more efficient overall than the next team (the Seahawks), and almost 10 percentage points better overall than the nearest AFC team (the Colts).

Although KC's defense is ranked very low in the NFL's stats, they rank on the basis of yardage. Football Outsiders ranks based on many factors, with a strong weight given to points allowed. Thus, KC ends up with the 9th-best defense in the NFL at this point. When you combine that with the #1 offense and the #2 special teams, it means Superbowl, baby! Well, maybe.

But where it really gets interesting is when you look at KC's biggest flaw: the Football Outsiders rank KC's run defense about where the NFL ranks KC's defense: 27th overall. But the other strong teams in the AFC are all strong passing teams with good defenses and weak running games. The highest ranked running game is Indianapolis at #15, followed by Miami at #25, New England at #29, and Tennessee at #31. And each of them has at least one flaw that is matched with a strength by KC. Head to head, KC should squeak by every one of them, and with the homefield advantage and Vermeil's ability to adjust gameplans, I do think KC has a darn good chance to win the Superbowl.

As long as they don't do anything to make the football gods angry....