As much as I hate to write anything about the New York Yankees, it is a painful necessity if you want to discuss baseball free agents and trades. So settle in with some hot stove talk, although I wouldn’t expect things to really heat up until December 7, when arbitration eligible players can be non-tendered, and December 12, when the winter meetings start.

So let’s lead off with the Yankees, who generally decide what players are left for the rest of baseball to choose from. After sifting through all the rumors offered up in Newsday, there are some that seem to be more than legitimate. I mean if the Yankees were seriously pursuing everyone Newsday said they were “seriously pursuing” then the Yankees would have to expand to an NFL size roster.

So here are the givens: The Yankees are desperate to resign Andy Pettitte, and will likely bump their three year, thirty million dollar offer up to $36-38 million, which is about where Sheffield will settle out as well. Pettitte, or more likely Pettitte’s agent, is using the Astros for leverage and is slowing down the talks with the Yanks. In the end, the ‘Stros just don’t have the money to sign Andy, but the Pettitte camp is going to play the “family values” card for all it’s worth. I’d put him at about 85% likely to resign with New York.

Another given: The Yankees want Javier Vazquez, and would love to send arbitration eligible Nick Johnson to Montreal straight up for him. I don’t think the Expos will bite, and with Vladimir Guerrero (more on him later) ready to depart, the Expos should have the cash to retain him. Thus the Yankees will turn their (leery) eyes to Bartolo Colon, a tremendous power pitcher who, once signed for big bucks, will expand to Irabu-like proportions and become quite mediocre. Obviously, the Yankees would like to think the Yankee mystique and team leadership will be enough to overcome Colon’s bad habits, but something tells me that George will dub him “Fat Toad II” by the middle of year two. The other option is Kevin Millwood, who isn’t generating much buzz this off-season. Maybe it’s because people just expect him to resign with Philly (I do) or maybe it’s because he is a Scott Boras client, thus ensuring expensive and drawn out negotiations resulting in a lifetime contract. (I think Boras will be disappointed this year.) The latest pitching rumor involves a Jeff Weaver for Kevin Brown deal with the Dodgers. Maybe if New York eats most of Weavers contract and throws in some players it is faintly possible, but unless Dan Evans started smoking crack for breakfast this strikes me as just what it is, a rumor. Now, throw in Nick Johnson and things become very intriguing. Odds of Vazquez being a Yankee: 40%. Colon: 90%. Millwood: 25%. Brown: 20%.

The third Yankee given: The Yankees would love to land Japanese free agent shortstop Kaz Matsui and move him to second base. That would allow them to shift Soriano to the outfield, and Bernie Williams to DH. The Yankees would join the Angels, Dodgers, Mariners, Mets and Orioles as teams with a very active interest in Matsui. The question is, can George throw enough bucks Matsui’s way to get him to move to second base and play on the east coast? Not likely, but with Luis Castillo off the market Big Stein may get desperate. Odds: 25%. Matsui’s most likely destination: Anaheim, but I would personally love to see the Dodgers make a run at him and move Izturis to second.

So what’s left out there for the rest of MLB? Vladimir Guerrero remains the big nut, and it seems to me that he is the perfect fit for Baltimore. They have the cash, they need some power (desperately) in the middle of the lineup, and they need a marquee player. In the back of my mind I also envisioned him ending up with the Giants, but I have heard nothing “out there” to justify my thoughts, so Baltimore seems like a the strongest possibility.

Miguel Tejada also remains out there and has generated little activity thus far. It appears he will have to wait until Matsui chooses his destination, leaving the losers to fight it out for his services. It seems to me that the Mets have been awful quiet lately, and haven’t grossly overpaid anyone in almost a year. Appears to be a match! The Dodgers are also a possibility, but will be the first to blink if a bidding war breaks out.

Speaking of the Dodgers (you knew it was coming). Now that the Dodgers lost out on Richie Sexson, who they wanted quite badly (although I’m not sure why) and Carlos Lee, perhaps they can turn their attention to where it is truly needed, a power-hitting left fielder (preferably a lefty). The LA Times is reporting that the Dodgers are pursuing a trade for Carlos Beltran. A very logical choice, so it makes some sense, but the next Dodger rumor the Times gets right will be the first. As mentioned above, the Dodgers tried very hard to get Sexson, offering up Paul LoDuca and pitching prospect Joel Hanrahan, but the Brewers kept insisting on Franklin Guttierez, and the Dodgers weren’t willing to part with their minor league player of the year. The Dodgers would have been foolish to trade Hanrahan, much less Guttierez, for a one-year first baseman.

I am also surprised that the Dodgers offered up LoDuca. Either it shows their desperation for a power hitting first baseman (justified) or it shows tremendous faith in catcher David Ross (jury is still out). Regardless, the Dodgers priorities need to remain, in order: a power hitting left fielder, first base, a middle infielder with pop, and a center fielder (I like Roberts, but the Dodgers need more). It looks like they are waiting until the 7th to see whom else becomes available.

I’m glad the Red Sox got Schilling. Primarily because he is a Dodger killer, but also because he will not be intimidated by the Yankees and may bring that in to the clubhouse with him (I can think of one Sox pitcher who would benefit from Schilling’s stability). I’ve never been a fan of his…I think he’s a blowhard and a whiner, but I will say this. His interest in going to the Sox for history sake seems genuine. Schilling has a huge ego, and I think he realized the biggest mark he could possibly leave on baseball history would be winning the World Series for the Red Sox. If the Sox were to win next year, who will get the headlines, the stories, and the credit? Schill. Who will be worshipped by all of RedSoxNation? Schill. And most importantly, who will have single-handedly broken the Curse of the Bambino, the larger-than-life legend who dominates baseball talk even today? Schill. Any more questions on why Schilling went to Boston? With my luck, the Dodgers will go to the Series this year and Schilling will win games one and four for the Sox…

With that signing, and the impending signing of reliever Keith Foulke, just about any player on the Sox roster will be available for a trade to relieve salary. With all that hitting, they can afford to give up a player or two. Second base sieve Todd Walker will definitely be non-tendered. Can anyone else see Steinbrenner grabbing him just to throw it in Epstein’s face while Cashman and Torre scream “Nooooooooooo!” in the background?

Finally, Jayson Stark wrote a nice piece on the Phillies and their rise in talent coupled with their impending rise in revenue. It certainly does sound like the Indians of the mid-nineties to me. The Phillies should win their division this year, through a combination of their own success and the Braves demise, but unless they get some of those windmills like Thome, Abreu, Rollins and Burrell to show some plate discipline they will be very inconsistent.