Check out my 2-part BCS analysis:
The Muddy BCS Picture
BCS Pt 2 - The TCU Problem

Here are some highlights:

Does anyone want that second ticket to the Sugar Bowl?

In one day this college football season has gone from intersting in an exciting way, to interesting in an ugly way. Last week Miami lost, renewing the dreams of a host of formidable one-loss teams. This week, a number of those teams appeared to retreat from the challenge.

Larry Coker paid dearly for his commitment to Brock Berlin as the Hurricanes failed to score a touchdown in their loss to Tennessee. Last week Virginia Tech demonstrated that if you challenge Berlin, he will make very bad decisions under pressure. This week, more of the same. Said Larry Coker, "The interceptions are unacceptable." And so, with all his horses having escaped, Coker decides to close the barn door.

Virginia Tech stood to be last week's big winner. Miami lost. FSU was losing convincingly. Both teams stood in front of the Hokies in the BCS Standings. All Va Tech had to do to join the short list of teams still fighting for a Sugar Bowl berth was finish off a decent, but not outstanding Pittsburgh team. Instead the vaunted Hokie defense gave up a late touchdown and Va Tech pushed away from the contender's table.

Last week's big winners ... Ohio State who finally won a game convincingly, beating the struggling Michigan State Spartans. And, LSU, who was fortunately idle while a chunk of the BCS top 10 imploded.

Here's my outlook on it. Oklahoma is in regardless of what they do now. They could lose in the Big 12 Championship and still go to the Sugar Bowl. They'll run the table, though, so the point is moot. USC is almost as much of a lock to be their foe in New Orleans. Assuming their consistent solid play continues, they should win out.

It looks like Ohio State will be next in line, but Michigan awaits. How many times have we seen this one? Even in years when they were good, the Buckeyes' Waterloo has been the Michigan game. This year they aren't that good. After a year off, I'm picking the Wolverines to resume tormenting Ohio State and their fans.

The SEC is the wild card in all of this. Right now it's impossible to tell which two teams will even play in the SEC Championship, much less who will win. In the east, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee are still alive. Florida beat Georgia, Georgia beat Tennessee and Tennessee beat Florida, so you figure it out. In the west, things cleared up quite a bit with Mississippi beating Auburn. LSU visits Mississippi in two weeks in a game that could decide the West. But LSU also has Alabama and Arkansas remaining on their schedule. Neither one is a game LSU can afford to take lightly.

Bottom Line: Oklahoma vs. USC in the Sugar Bowl should be a classic. These are clearly the best two teams in the nation right now.

Beyond that, this will not be a banner year for the BCS bowls. Miami and Florida State are finishing poorly, but still control their own conference destinies. Purdue-Ohio State will be big, but as already stated, I believe Michigan will resume their hex on the Buckeyes. If Mississippi wins the SEC West, I think LSU will be fighting with Texas and Washington State for the at-large bids. And really, you know the Rose Bowl will want a Big 10-Pac10 matchup, so LSU will be fighting with Texas for the last at-large bid.

My projection:

Sugar: Oklahom vs. USC
Rose: Washington State vs. Michigan
Orange: Miami vs. Florida State
Fiesta: Mississippi vs. Texas

As for TCU, the Horned Frogs stand at #6 in the current BCS standings. Several teams behind them have quality games remaining however, so TCU could very well wind up out of the top 6, and therefore relying on the generosity of the BCS Committee.

The basic pro argument is: TCU is one of only two undefeated teams in the country, what more do they have to do? And the con: Play a stronger schedule. But these thoughts focus only on what happens on the field. Situations like this expose the BCS for the money-driven operation that it is. If pure competition and a desire to crown an unquestioned champion were the motive force, we'd have a playoff system.

So, the real con arguments are ... a mid-major school is not a good draw. You get more juice from an LSU-Texas match up than from LSU-TCU. Some go so far as to argue that the power conferences are also trying to suppress the mid-majors, keeping control of the big ticket bowls for themselves. I'm not privy to the workings of the BCS mind, but I believe it stops at money.

This year, after Oklahoma and USC, the chase pack crumbles more and more each week. There are only two serious one-loss teams, LSU and very unimpressive Ohio State, and both of them still have multiple challenging games on their schedules.

So, when we get to the end, we'll have a bunch of marginal 2-3 loss teams and TCU fighting for two at-large bids. As a fan, I can't look at any of the teams that may be involved in that scrum and say that they have shown themselves to be more worthy of one of those berths than TCU.

By the way, in case you missed it, Congress got involved in this one, and issued many pronouncements that the BCS should be more inclusive. That's a nice PC word ... "inclusive." No mention that the mid-majors (and Kansas State) don't seem to be very inclusive when it comes to adding good teams to their schedules. But I digress.

Wait. I must digress again. My initial thought when I read about this was that Congress really has much better things to do with their time and attention. But then I realized that all of America probably benefited from our Reps and Senators taking a time out from trying to "fix" things that really matter. OK. Enough digression.

The likely result of TCU being invited to the BCS: a pummeling. Sorry TCU fans, but your team just doesn't play BCS football. The spotless record is commendable and it's not that you didn't have some tough games. But, the major teams, even those stumbling along with multiple losses, play at an entirely different level week in and week out. Match TCU up with any one of the top 10 BCS ranked teams, and TCU gets pounded.

So, the BCS Committee could use this opportunity to squelch much of the criticism. They could suck it up, invite TCU, allow the beating to occur, and absorb the lower ratings. Then they would always be able to point back to this year and say, "We tried that. It doesn't work."

Personally, I don't really find the BCS guys to be in tune with the big picture. Take two years ago when Illinois and Maryland made it to the BCS as the unlikely winners of their conferences. Both were wonderful stories, but both were also well out manned next to the rest of the BCS field. The smart thing to do would have been to couple these two together in one of the games which would have been an intriguing match up and made the remaining games more attractive as well. Instead we had four blowouts that year, as this was also the season that Colorado won the Big 12 but Nebraska leap-frogged them for a berth in the championship game.

So, I expect that TCU's only chance of crashing the party will be to land in the top 6, which earns an automatic invite. Right now they are there. But, as mentioned, several of the teams in or around top 6 territory have remaining games that could give them a boost and push TCU back out. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have nothing to gain and everything to lose in the remainder of their schedule. If the issue isn't forced, I see the at-large bids going to two teams from this group; Texas, Washington State and the SEC West runner up.