Time to adjust my projections. It looks like the race for #2 will go right down to the wire though, so really it is all still up in the air.
Thanks to TCU and Washington State for making things somewhat easier. USC will be the one and only Pac-10 rep in this year's BCS. And, yet again, the BCS has avoided having a mid-major muddy the waters.
Many feel that USC has nearly locked up a Sugar Bowl date. While I do feel it probably will be USC, it's certainly not a given. USC's schedule remains a liability, especially after Washington beat Washington State, robbing the Trojans of valuable quality win fractions of a point. LSU on the other hand will improve its SOS by adding Arkansas this week. The downside is that LSU easily has the toughest road remaining and their winning out is not a foregone conclusion. I'll go with the Tigers to win out, but I don't think all of the other elements will combine as needed to put them in the Sugar Bowl.
The Big East remains a three-team race with just one week to go. Miami controls their own destiny, although they must win at Pitt to cash in. I'll take the Canes. They lost focus when their Championship hopes were dashed. Now it's a matter of pride, and Miami is still a powerful and dangerous team when they want to be.
Florida State is already in as the ACC champ. Unfortunately for the Seminoles and the BCS, FSU could come stumbling into the BCS with three losses as Florida will have much on the line when they host them this weekend. With a win, the Gators could climb within 5 BCS spots of Georgia and become the East Representative in the SEC Championship. Obviously with that comes the possibility of going to the BCS.
I will take the Gators at home this weekend. But, will that bring them close enough to Georgia? With the Ohio State loss, Georgia should move up to #5 in the BCS standings and that is where they will remain until the SEC East's moment of truth.
So, Florida (#13 in last week's BCS) needs to crack the top 10. With Georgia and LSU moving up, Florida gains a little in the quality win area. The Gators' main problem is that their schedule component is already very strong giving them little room for improvement there. So, polls become the key. Washington State's loss should move the Gators up to #12 when this week's rankings come out. Beating FSU will move them up to #11. After that, the pickings get slim. Basically Florida has to hope that a win over the Seminoles will impress the pollsters enough to jump them over TCU. Sorry, Coach Zook. Too many things have to fall just right. I see LSU-Georgia in the SEC Championship.
OK, here are my revised BCS projections:
Sugar: Oklahoma - USC
Rose: Michigan - Georgia
Orange: Florida St - Miami
Fiesta: LSU - Texas
Other notes:
Whether he wants to retire or not, Frank Solich is gone. The miracle is that he lasted this long. Whether reasonable or not, Nebraska fans and alumni have higher expectations. The 22 losses posted by the Huskers in Solich's 6 seasons, match the total for Tom Osborne's last 13 seasons at Nebraska. Even the team's lone Championship attempt during Solich's tenure is tainted, being seen as more of a quirky by-product of BCS mathematics and Nebraska not making the Big XII Conference Championship game, than a merited honor.
TCU's loss and Oklahoma's dominance haven't completely let the BCS off the hook. If LSU wins out in the SEC, how can you justify taking either the Tigers or USC over the other? If the Sugar Bowl is close, it will really open the door for griping from the odd team out.
Speaking of tough decisions, Chris Perry turned the heat up on the Heisman race in Michigan's win over Ohio State this last weekend. When they consider Perry, voters will be left with the image of an outstanding performance turned in against a much-heralded defense as Perry helped lead his team to their most important victory of the season. Could a player ask for a stronger finish?
As if that weren't enough, Larry Fitzgerald will find himself in a similar situation this weekend against Miami in another game that will likely be watched by a majority of the voters. If Fitzgerald stands out in a Pitt win, what then?
Actually, I'm ruling out Fitzgerald. Nothing against the guy. If the process were fair, he'd be a prime candidate. But the process isn't fair. It favors players on marquis teams. Pitt has quietly had a great season, but they just don't get the play that other teams do.
In my mind, the wild card here is, "How much does Jason White get penalized for playing on a strong team?" While I don't agree with it, I think the perception by many is that you could take out any single player and the Sooners wouldn't miss a beat.
Comments (3)
Nice post, Brian. ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Dan | November 24, 2003 6:50 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Nice post, Brian.
I agree with you on Perry's Heisman push. After he had a couple of so-so games, I was more of a doubter, but after he left the field strewn with Buckeye defenders' jockstraps the other day, I'm a believer. He showed a lot of guts, on top of the moves and speed.
In addition to favoring "elite" teams, the Heisman process also has a bias that favors upperclassmen, hurting Fitzgerald's chances there. I haven't seen enough of White to compare him with the others. Is it just my perception, or have the Sooners not been on national tube very often this year?
As you predicted, the Buckeyes ran out of miracles. Actually, they got whipped by a very good football team, peaking at the right time.
1. Posted by Dan | November 24, 2003 6:50 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 24, 2003 18:50
2. Posted by Brian Besaw | November 25, 2003 1:52 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Well, the surprises continue. Yesterday's BCS rankings didn't look much like I had expected. Ohio State may not be headed to the Sugar Bowl, but they are looking good for a BCS spot somewhere. Since landing in the top 6 guarantees a BCS berth, and two conference champs (ACC-Florida State, and Big East-Whoever) will likely finish out of the top 6, this will leave the BCS heads with little flexibility other than deciding where to place the teams.
So now, more than ever, all eyes are on the SEC. And look how Florida, Georgia and Tennessee have converged. I'm not sure how the SEC East tie-breaker will work if all three teams finish within five spots of each other, but it looks like we'll find out.
2. Posted by Brian Besaw | November 25, 2003 1:52 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on November 25, 2003 13:52
3. Posted by Siegel Zoe | February 28, 2004 9:53 AM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Study as though you will not reach, as if you may lose it.
3. Posted by Siegel Zoe | February 28, 2004 9:53 AM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on February 28, 2004 09:53